EGY KIS VILÁGTÉRKÉP AZ ERŐFORRÁSOKRÓL MERRE TART A VILÁG? Gazdasági erőtérkép Versenyképességi rangsorok Hol vagyunk, hova tartunk? Előadó:Dr. Findrik Mária PhD. CEU professzor, vendégprof a Columbia Egyetemen, USA a) Terület b) Népesség c) Nyersanyagok/ arany, olaj d) Jelenlegi gazdasági kibocsátás: GDP e) Gazdasági potenciál: integráltság a világgazdaságba, K+ F, oktatás, életminőség f) Világtrendek - Mo helye 1. TERÜLET TERÜLET Area (km²) World ~149,, 100% Russia ~ 17,, 11,4% China ~ 9,650, 6,5% USA ~ 9,630, 6,5% India ~ 3,300, 2,2% EU ~ 4,420, 3% 160,, 140,, 120,, 100,, 80,, 60,, 40,, 20,, World Russia China USA India EU Europe As ia Europe ~ 10,180, 6,8% 0 1 2 Asia ~ 43,800, 29,4% 2. NÉPESSÉG NÉPESSÉG Region / country 1990 Share of total 1990 (%) 2 Growth rate from 1990 to 2 (%) Share of total 2 (%) 2009 Share of total 2009 (%) Growth rate from 2 to 2009 (%) 7 6 Europe ~ 722 14 ~ 728 083 0.83 12 710,, 11 25 2.5 decrease 365 7 ~ 376 3.01 6 ~ 490 8 2 EU ~ 680 Asia ~ 3 170 60 ~ 3 16.09 61 ~ 3 800 58 3,3 5 4 3 1990 2 2006 China ~ 1 140 22 ~ 1 275 11.84 21 ~ 1 320 20 3.5 2 India ~ 849 16 ~ 1,,, 17.79 16 ~ 1 130 17 13 1 USA ~ 250 Total ~ 5 263 World 5 ~ 283 100 ~ 6,,, 13.2 5 ~ 300 5 6 14 100 6 500 100 8 0 World Europe EU Asia China India USA 1
A NÉPESSÉG MEGOSZLÁSA A NÉPESSÉG NÖVEKEDÉSE Year Total world population (mid-year figures) Ten-year growth rate (%) 1950 ~ 2,600,, 19.0% 1960 ~ 3,,, 22.0 1970 ~ 3,700,, 21 1980 ~ 4,500,, 18 1990 ~ 5,300,600, 15 2 ~ 6,100,, 13 2010 1 ~ 6,850,, 11 2020 1 ~ 7,600,, 9 2030 1 ~ 8,250,, 7 2040 1 ~ 8,850,, 6 2050 1 ~ 9,350,, NÉPESSÉG ELŐREJELZÉS 3. NYERSANYAG / OLAJ A TOP 10 LEGNAGYOBB OLAJKITERMELŐ ORSZÁG 1 Saudi Arabia 2 US 3 Russia 4 Iran 5 Mexico 6 Venezuela 7 China 8 Norway 9 UK 10 Iraq Proved reserves Rank Country (billion barrels) 1 Saudi Arabia 264.3 2 Canada 178.8 3 Iran 132.5 4 Iraq 115 NYERSANYAG / OLAJ A TOP 15 LEGNAGYOBB OLAJ-NAGYHATALOM (tartalékok) A TOP 10 LEGNAGYOBB OLAJTARTALÉKKAL RENDELKEZŐ NAGYHATALOM 5 Kuwait 101.5 6 United Arab Emirates 97.8 7 Venezuela 79.7 8 Russia 60 9 Libya 39.1 10 Nigeria 35.9 11 United States 21.4 12 China 18.3 13 Qatar 15.2 14 Mexico 12.9 15 Algeria 11.4 Top 20 countries 1224.5 (95%) Rest of world 68.10 (5%) World total 1292.6 2
NYERSANYAG / ARANY A TOP 10 LEGNAGYOBB ARANYKITERMELŐ ORSZÁG (2006) 1 USA 8133.5 2 Germany 3427.8 3 International Monetary Fund 3217.3 4 France 2892.6 5 Italy 2451.8 NYERSANYAG / ARANY A TOP 15 LEGNAGYOBB ARANYTARTALÉKKAL RENDELKEZŐ ORSZÁG 6 Switzerland 1290.1 7 Japan 765.2 8 Netherlands 722.4 9 European Central Bank 719.9 10 People's Republic of China 600 11 Republic of China (Taiwan) 423.3 12 Portugal 407.5 13 Russia 386.6 14 India 357.7 15 Venezuela 357 4. GAZDASÁGI KIBOCSÁTÁS USD (GDP ÖSSZES) A VILÁG ÖSSZESHEZ MÉRT ARÁNY GDP (PPP) GDP based on PPP (Bs) 1990 2 2009 World ~ 27,.00 ~ 45,.00 ~ 66,230.00 Europe ~14,.00 15,270.00 European Union ~ 7,045.00 ~ 10,600.00 ~ 13,890.00 Central and Eastern ~ 1,070.00 ~ 1,500.00 ~ 2,270.00 Europe Asia ~9,069,00 ~16,965,00 ~ 23,200,00 Developing Asia ~ 3,900.00 ~ 9,750.00 ~ 17,900.00 India ~1,121,00 ~2,400,00 4,160.00 China ~1,500,00 ~4,845,00 10,170,00 Developing Asia & ~ 4,700.00 ~ 11,300.00 ~ 20,200.00 ASEAN-4 Middle East ~ 675. ~ 1,200.00 ~ 1,900.00 USA ~ 5,700.00 ~ 9,640.00 ~ 13,.00 1990 2 2009 Central and Eastern Europe ~ 4.0% ~ 3.4% ~ 3.4% Europe ~ 22,2 % EU Asia 26,2% 32,3% 35.0% Developing Asia ~ 14.5% ~ 22.0% 27,0% China ~5,7% ~11,0% ~13,5% India ~4,3% ~5,4% ~6,0% Middle East ~ 2.5% ~ 3.0% ~ 2.9% USA ~ 21.2% ~ 21.5% ~ 20.0% A FEJLŐDŐK ARÁNYA TOP 20 GDP TERMELŐ ORSZÁG 3
GDP/fő, (piaci ár) 2010 GDP/fő 2010 Selected Emerging market economies (EME) Country GDP/cap USD (cur p)? 24,567.5 Czech Rep. 18, 288 Korea 20,591 Slovakia 16,104 Estonia 14,836 Taiwan 18,458 Croatia 13,720 Hungary 12,879 Latvia 10,695 Lithuania 11,044 Poland 12,300 Chile 11,828 Turkey 10,399 Russia 10,437 Brazil 10,816 Mexico 9,566 China 4,382 Ukraine 3, India 1,265 Magas jövedelemszint: innováció Közepes jövedelemszint: beruházás, hatékonyság növekedés Alacsony jövedelemszint: termelési tényezőkön alapuló növekedés Mi a fejlődés motorja? Definíció Potenciál a fenntartható, a jelenlegi gazdasági teljesítményt meghaladó gazdasági fejlődésre Versenyképesség Jelentés a versenyképességről globális szinten (Global Competitiveness Report) A jelentés kiadója: World Economic Forum A versenyképesség növekedésének indexe (Growth of Competitiveness Index = GCI) Jeffrey Sachs, John McArthur Columbia Egyetem, The Earth Institute Versenyképesség az üzleti életben - index (Business Competitiveness Index = BCI) Michael Porter, Harvard Egyetem A makro versenyképességet vizsgáló indexek GCI I: Gross Competitiveness Index (3 fő pillér) GCI II: Global Competitiveness Index (12 fő pillér) CCI: Current Competitiveness Index = GDP/fő BCI: Business Competitiveness Index 4
A versenyképesség növekedési indexének struktúrája (GCI I) Country Credit Ratings 2008-2009 (by Institutional Investor) Macrogazdasági g A Köz Intézmények Technológiai Környezet index minőségi indexe Index Makrogazdaság stabilitása Country credit ratings Kormány hatékonyság Törvényi szabályozás A korrupció mértéke Innováció Információs és Kommunikációs Technológia Country Credit Ratings 2008-2009 (by Institutional Investor) Country Credit Ratings 2008-2009 (by Institutional Investor) Diversion of public funds Diversion of public funds In your country, how common is diversion of public funds to companies, individuals, or groups due to corruption? (1 = very common; 7 = never occurs) 2009 2010 weighted average In your country, how common is diversion of public funds to companies, individuals, or groups due to corruption? (1 = very common; 7 = never occurs) 2009 2010 weighted average In selected EMEs: 41. Poland 50. Lithuania 56. Macedonia 57. Romania 60. Hungary 63. China 67. Czech Rep. 72. Slovak Rep. 80. Croatia 87. Serbia 94. Bulgaria 111. Russian Fed. 127. Ukraine 5
Transparency of government policymaking 41 United States 94 Hungary Public trust of politicians How would you rate the level of public trust in the ethical standards of politicians in your country? (1 = very low; 7 = very high) 2009 2010 weighted average Corruption Index 2009 Public trust of politicians How would you rate the level of public trust in the ethical standards of politicians in your country? (1 = very low; 7 = very high) 2009 2010 weighted average Hungary ranks: 128 Corruption Index 2009 The full ranking of countries shows a more nuanced picture. The first ten countries appear to be all small or medium sized economies. Six are located in Northern and Central Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Iceland, the Netherlands), one in North America (Canada), one in Asia (Singapore) and two in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). The larger economies are lower down in the list : Germany ranks 14th, the United Kingdom 16th, Japan and the USA 18th, France 23rd and Italy 55th of 180 countries. Source: Transparency International 6
Of the ten countries at the lower end of the list six are in Africa (Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Guinea, Sudan and Somalia), one in the Americas (Haiti) and three in Asia (Afghanistan, Iraq and Myanmar). Source: Transparency International Public trust in politicians Folyt. Public trust in the financial honesty of politicians is 1 = very low, 7 = very high Hungary rank: 60, score: 2,4 Közintézmények Minőségének Indexe Kulcs sub-indexek: Törvény szabályozás TOP 15 Ország Rang Ország Korrupció Rang Denmark 1 Switzerland 9 New Zealand 2 Sweden 10 Iceland 3 Austria 11 Finland 4 UK 12 Germany 5 Australia 13 Norway 6 Hong Kond SAR 14 Singapore 7 Japan 15 Netherlands 8 Hungary 41 Forrás: World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org Technological readiness Country Rank Sweden 1 Netherlands 2 Switzerland 3 Denmark 4 Luxemburg 5 Singapore 6 Norway 7 UK 8 Hong Kong SAR 9 Finland 10 Canada 11 Germany 12 USA 13 Iceland 14 Korea, Rep 15 Technological readiness and Innovation 2009-2010 Innovation Country Rank USA 1 Switzerland 2 Finland 3 Japan 4 Sweden 5 Taiwan, China 6 Germany 7 Singapore 8 Israel 9 Denmark 10 Korea, Rep. 11 Canada 12 Netherlands 13 Belgium 14 UK 15 7
Folyt. Innovation 2009-2010 EMEs Selected EMEs Country Rank Country Rank Singapore 8 Lithuania 58 Czech Rep. 25 Croatia 61 China 26 Ukraine 62 Slovenia 29 Romania 70 Estonia 37 Serbia 80 Hungary 45 Lathvia 88 Russia 51 Bulgaria 91 Poland 52 Macedonia 92 Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007, World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org Information & communication technology spending 2005 (wikipedia) Technological readiness 2009-2010 EMEs Selected EMEs Country Rank Country Rank Estonia 16 Poland 48 Czech Rep 30 Macedonia 52 Slovenia 32 Bulgaria 56 Singapore 33 Romania 58 Lithuania 36 Russia 74 Hungary 40 Serbia 78 Croatia 43 China 79 Latvia 47 Ukraine 80 Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007, World Economic Forum, http://www.weforum.org Italy 4977 108 31 Slovenia 4795 100 35 Austria 4752 97 57 Switzerland 4720 84 82 Israel 4663 105 73 Internet Ország használók* Mobil telefonok** PC*** Iceland 7700 99 47 Sweden 7546 108 76 Malta 7525 76 31 Korea, Rep. 6567 76 54 Australia 6528 82 68 US 6299 62 76 Finland 6299 95 48 Internet használat, mobiltelefon és PC *Internet users per 10 inhab. Germany 4266 86 48 Slovak Rep 4226 79 29 France 4136 73 48 Belgium 4020 87 34 Jamaica 3987 82 6 Norway 3936 103 57 Malaysia 3862 57 19 Cyprus 3692 79 30 Latvia 3543 67 21 Spain 3317 89 25 Folyt. UK 6287 102 60 Canada 6236 46 69 Netherlands 6162 91 68 Luxemburg 5900 138 62 **Cellular telephone subscribers per 100 inhab United Arab Emirates 3185 84 12 Ireland 2963 93 49 Croatia 2950 63 19 Luithuania 2809 99 15 Singapore 5612 89 62 Portugal 2802 98 13 Barbados 5535 73 12 Taiwan, China 5381 100 52 New Zealand 5263 77 49 Estonia 5122 96 47 Denmark 5036 95 65 ***PC's per 100 inhab Chile 2790 62 13 Hungary 2674 86 14 Costa Rica 2354 21 21 Kuwait 2350 78 17 Poland 2334 59 19 Quatar 2217 65 17 Hong Kong SAR 5031 118 60 Bahrain 2130 90 16 Japan 5020 71 54 Uruguay 2098 18 13 Czech Rep 4996 105 21 Romania 2076 47 11 Guayana 1890 13 3 8
Global Competitiveness Index (GCI II) Competitiveness pillars Basic requirements Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic availability Health and primary education Efficiency enhancers Higher education and training Goodsmarketefficiency Labor market efficiency Financial market sophistication Technological readiness Marketsize Innovation and sophistication factors Business sophistication Innovation Key for factor-driven economies Key for efficiency-driven economies Key for innovation-driven economies Globális Versenyképesség Index (Global Competitiveness Index) Azokra az emberi és szociális szempontokra Fókuszál, amelyek a gazdasági teljesítményre vannak hatással. 12 pillér: Intézmények, Infrasturktúra, Makrogazdaság, Egészség és elsődleges oktatás, felsőoktatás és továbbképzés, Piac hatékonyság, Technológiai felkészültség, Üzleti rátermettség, Innováció GCI II. összetevői F E I Basic requirements 60% 40% 20% Efficiency factors 35% 50% 50% Innovation factors 5% 10% 30% GCI II. rangsor Rank 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 United States United States Switzerland Switzerland 2 Switzerland Switzerland United States Sweden 3 Denmark Denmark Singapore Singapore 4 Sweden Sweden Sweden United States 5 Germany Singapore Denmark Germany 6 Finland Finland Finland Japan 7 Singapore Germany Germany Finland 8 Japan Netherlands Japan Netherlands 9 United Kingdom Japan Canada Denmark 10 Netherlands Canada Netherlands Canada 11 Korea, Rep. Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong SAR 12 Hong Kong SAR United Kingdom Taiwan, China United Kingdom 13 Canada Korea, Rep. United Kingdom Norway 14 Taiwan, China Austria Norway France 15 Austria Norway Australia Australia 16 Norway France France Quatar 17 Israel Taiwan, China Austria Austria 18 France Australia Belgium Belgium 19 Australia Belgium Korea, Rep. Luxemburg 20 Belgium Iceland New Zealand New Zealand GCI II. 2006 2007-2008 2009-2010 EMEs The Global Competitiveness Index 2011 2012 rankings and 2010 2011 comparisons 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 29. China 27. Estonia 30. China 30. China 27. China 33. Czech Rep. 32. Estonia 32. Estonia 31. Czech Rep 33. Estonia 34. China 33. Czech Rep 33.Czech Rep 35. Estonia 36. Checz Rep 39. Slovenia 39. Cyprus 40. Cyprus 37. Slovenia 39. Poland 41. Slovakia 41. Slovenia 42. Slovenia 46. Poland 45. Slovenia 40. Lithuania 42. Portugal 43. Portugal 47. Slovakia 47. Lithuania 47. Hungary 45. Slovakia 46. Slovakia 49. India 51. India 48. India 48. Italy 49. Italy 53. Lithuania 52. Hungary 51. Poland 49. India 50. India 56. Brazil 58. Brazil 52. Mexico 52. Poland 53. Poland 60. Slovakia 53. Turkey 59. Mexico 60. Mexico 58. Hungary 61.Turkey 58. Russia 61. Hungary 62. Hungary 60. Mexico 63. Russia 72. Brazil 63. Brazil 64. Brazil 61. Turkey 66. Mexico 73. Ukraine 71. Ukraine 72. Ukraine 63. Russia 67. Romanai 74. Romania 67. Romania 68. Romania 64. Romania 82. Ukraine 89. Ukraine 9
The Global Competitiveness Index 2011 2012 rankings and 2010 2011 comparisons Cont d The Global Competitiveness Index 2011 2012 rankings and 2010 2011 comparisons Cont d Basic Requirements 1. Denmark Estonia 29 2. Finland Slovenia 37 3. Singapore Czech 42 4. Switzerland Slovakia 50 5. Hong Kong 6. Sweden 7. Netherlands 8. Norway 9. Germany 10. Austria Hungary 59 1. Finland 2. Denmark 3. Singapore 4. Switzerland 5. Iceland 79. Hungary 1.pillér: Intézmények 2.pillér: Infrastruktúra 3.pillér: Makrogazdaság 1. Germany 2. France 3. Singapore 4. Switzerland 5. Hong Kong 51. Hungary 1. Kuvait 2. Qatar 3. UAE 4. Singapore 69. Hungary 10