BULLETIN. of the Szent István University SPECIAL ISSUE PART I.

Átírás

1 BULLETIN of he Szen Isván Universiy SPECIAL ISSUE PART I. Gödöllı 2008

2 Ediorial Board Prof. György Füleki CSc. Chairman of he Ediorial Board Prof. Miklós Mézes DSc. edior Prof. Béla M. Csizmadia CSc. Prof. Tamás T. Kiss CSc. Prof. Gyula Huszenicza DSc. Prof. Gábor Reischl DLA Prof. Isván Szőcs DSc. Edied by he Gues Ediorial Board Kaalin Takács-György CSc, Chairman of he Gues Ediorial Board József Lehoa DSc Isván Takács PhD László Villányi CSc Wih he suppor of Faculy of Economics and Social Sciences, Szen Isván Universiy Managemen and Business Adminisraion PhD School of Szen Isván Universiy Szerkeszıség Szen Isván Egyeem 2103 Gödöllı, Páer Károly u. 1. Kiadja a Szen Isván Egyeem Felelıs kiadó Dr. Soli László egyeemi anár, rekor Technikai szerkeszı Szalay Zsigmond Gábor Felelıs szerkeszı Dr. Mézes Miklós egyeemi anár ISSN Megjelen 380 példányban

3 Conens / Taralomjegyzék Par I. / I. köe Agriculural and rural developmen and inernaional view Agrár- és vidékfejleszés, nemzeközi kiekinés ÁCS, SZ. DALLIMER, M. HANLEY, N. ARMSWORTH, P.: Impacs of policy reform on hill farm incomes in UK...11 BIELIK, P. RAJČÁNIOVÁ, M.: Some problems of social and economic developmen of agriculure...25 BORZÁN A. SZIGETI C.: A Duna-Körös-Maros-Tisza Eurorégió gazdasági fejleségének elemzése a régiók Európájában...37 CSEH PAPP, I. Regionális különbségek a magyar munkaerıpiacon...45 NAGY, H. KÁPOSZTA, J.: Convergence crieria and heir fulfilmen by he counries ouside he Euro-zone...53 OSZTROGONÁCZ, I. SING, M. K.: The developmen of he agriculural secor in he rural areas of he Visegrad counries...65 PRZYGODZKA, R.: Tradiion or innovaion which approach is beer in rural developmen? The case of Podlasie Region...75 TAKÁCS E. HUZDIK K.: A magyarországi immigráció rendjei az elmúl ké évizedben...87 TÓTHNÉ LİKÖS K. BEDÉNÉ SZİKE É. GÁBRIELNÉ TİZSÉR GY.: országok összehasonlíása néhány makroökonómiai muaó alapján VINCZE M. MADARAS SZ. Analysis of he Romanian agriculure in he period of ransiion, based on he naional accouns Agriculural rade and markeing Agrárkereskedelem, markeing ADAMOWICZ, M.: Consumer behavior in innovaion adapaion process on frui marke 125 FÉNYES, T. I. MEYER, N. G. BREITENBACH, M. C.: Agriculural expor and impor assessmen and he rade, developmen and co-operaion agreemen beween Souh Africa and he European Union KEMÉNYNÉ HORVÁTH ZS.: The ransformaion of marke players on he demand-side of he grain marke LEHOTA J. KOMÁROMI N.: A feldolgozo funkcionális élelmiszerek fogyaszói szegmenálása és magaarási jellemzıi LEHOTA J. KOMÁROMI N.: Szarvasgomba fogyaszói és beszerzési magaarásának szegmenálása és jellemzıi NYÁRS, L. VIZVÁRI, B.: On he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke SZAKÁLY Z. SZIGETI O. SZENTE V.: Fogyaszói aiődök áplálkozási elınyökkel kapcsolaban SZIGETI O. SZENTE V. MÁTHÉ A. SZAKÁLY Z.: Markeing leheıségek az állai eredeő hungarikumok ermékpályáján VÁRADI K.: Társadalmi válozások és a markeing kapcsolaának modellezési leheıségei...211

4 Susainabiliy and compeiivness Fennarhaóság, versenyképesség BARANYAI ZS. TAKÁCS I.: A haékonyság és versenyképesség fıbb kérdései a délalföldi érség gazdaságaiban BARKASZI L.: A kukoricaermeszés haékonyságának és eredményességének vizsgálaa évi eszüzemi adaok alapján JÁMBOR A.: A versenyképesség elmélee és gyakorlaa LENCSÉS E.: A precíziós gazdálkodás ökonómiai érékelése MAGÓ, L.: Low cos mechanisaion of small and medium size plan producion farms SINGH, M. K. KAPUSZTA, Á. FEKETE-FARKAS, M.: Analyzing agriculure produciviy indicaors and impac of climae change on CEECs agriculure STRELECEK, F. ZDENĚK, R. LOSOSOVÁ, J.: Influence of farm milk prices on profiabiliy and long-erm asses efficiency SZÉLES I.: Vidéki versenyképesség-versenyképes vidékfejleszés: AVOP inézkedések és azok kommunikációjának vizsgálaa SZİLLİSI L. NÁBRÁDI A.: A magyar baromfi ágaza akuális problémái TAKÁCS I. BARANYAI ZS. TAKÁCS E. TAKÁCSNÉ GYÖRGY K.: A versenyképes viruális (nagyüzem TAKÁCSNÉ GYÖRGY K. TAKÁCS E. TAKÁCS I.: Az agrárgazdaság fennarhaóságának mikro- és makrogazdasági dilemmái Auhors index / Névjegyzék...355

5 Par II. / II. köe Economic mehods and models Közgazdasági módszerek, modellek BARANYI A. SZÉLES ZS.: A hazai lakosság megakaríási hajlandóságának vizsgálaa367 BHARTI, N.: Offshore ousourcing (OO in India s ies: how effecive i is in daa proecion? BORSZÉKI É.: A jövedelmezıség és a ıkeszerkeze összefüggései a vállalkozásoknál FERTİ, I.: Comparaive advanage and rade compeiiveness in Hungarian agriculure JÁRÁSI É. ZS.: Az ökológiai módon mővel ermıerüleek nagyságá befolyásoló ényezık és az áruermelı növények piaci pozíciói Magyarországon KODENKO J. BARANYAI ZS. TAKÁCS I.: Magyarország és Oroszország agrársrukúrájának válozása az 1990-es évekıl napjainkig OROVA, I. KOMÁROMI, N.: Model applicaions for he spread of new producs in Hungarian marke circumsances REKE B.: A vállalkozások egyensúlyi helyzeének válozásköveı vizsgálaa ŠINDELÁŘ, J.: Forecasing models in managemen SIPOS N.: A környezevédelmi jellegő adók vizsgálaa a fennarhaó gazdálkodás vonakozásában VARGA T.: Kényszerő hagyomány : érékveszés a mezıgazdasági ermékek piacán ZÉMAN Z. TÓTH M. BÁRCZI J.: Az ellenırzési evékenység kialakíási folyamaának modellezése különös ekineel a gazdálkodási evékenységeke érinı K+F és innovációk elszámolására Land uilizaion and farm srucure Földhasznála, gazdaságsrukúra FEHÉR, I. MADARÁSZ I.: Hungarian land ownership paerns and possible fuure soluions according o he sakeholders' view FEKETE-FARKAS, M. SINGH, M. K. ROUNSEVELL, M. AUDSLEY, E.: Dynamics of changes in agriculural land use arising from climae, policy and socio-economic pressures in Europe LAZÍKOVÁ, J. BANDLEROVA, A. SCHWARCZ, P.: Agriculural cooperaives and heir developmen afer he ransformaion ORLOVITS, ZS.: The influence of he legal background on he ransacion coss on he land marke in Hungary SADOWSKI, A.: Polish land marke before and afer ransiion SZŐCS, I. FARKAS-FEKETE M. VINOGRADOV, S. A.: A new mehodology for he esimaion of land value...539

6 Innovaion, educaion Innováció, udásmenedzsmen BAHATTIN, C. PARSEKER, Z. AKPINAR BAYIZIT, A. TURHAN, S.: Using e- commerce as an informaion echnique in agri-food indusry DEÁKY Z. MOLNÁR M.: A gödöllıi falukuaó hagyományok: múl és jelen ENDER, J. MIKÁCZÓ, A.: The benefis of a farm food safey sysem FARKAS, T. KOLTA, D: The European ideniy and ciizenship of he universiy sudens in Gödöllı FLORKOWSKI, W. J.: Opporuniies for innovaion hrough inerdisciplinary research HUSTI I.: A hazai agrárinnováció leheıségei és feladaai KEREKES K.: A Kolozs megyei Vidéki Magyar fiaalok pályaválaszása SINGH, R. MISHRA, J. K. SINGH, M. K.: The enrepreneurship model of business educaion: building knowledge economy RITTER K.: Agrár-munkanélküliség és a erülei egyenlılenségek Magyarországon SZALAY ZS. G.: A menedzsmen információs rendszerek kölség-haszon elemzése SZÉKELY CS.: A mezıgazdasági vállalai gazdaságan fél évszázados fejlıdése SZŐCS I. JÁRÁSI É. ZS. KÉSMÁRKI-GALLY SZ.: A kuaási eredmények sorsa és haszna Auhors index / Névjegyzék...689

7 AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND MARKETING AGRÁRKERESKEDELEM, MARKETING

8 On he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke 177 Absrac ON THE SUPPLY FUNCTION OF THE HUNGARIAN PORK MARKET NYÁRS, LEVENTE VIZVÁRI, BÉLA The Hungarian pork marke has been in a decreasing posiion in he las years. The main reasons for ha is he increasing inernaional compeiion, he Hungarian suppor sysem has been replaced by CMO of pigmea and he decrease of pig mea consumpion as a resul of cusomer behaviour. There was no exac esimaion of he Hungarian supply funcion. In a earlier paper we have published for regression equaions for i. In he firs par of presen paper we show ha hese equaions forecased in a appropriae way he pessimisic scenario. The second par of paper discusses revisied, new regression equaions. Keywords: inernaional compeiion, change of consumers behaviour, price elasiciies, forcasing Inroducion Tradiionally pork has one of he larges shares in he mea marke in Hungary. Alhough per capia consumpion is he half of EU15 average. The share of poulry is sill increasing and is consumpion has exceeded he consumpion of pork. The consumpion of any oher ype of mea is low. The Hungarian pork marke experienced several srucural changes in he las wo decades. Among hem he las one is ha Hungary joined o he European Union in May 1, In each year several inervenions ook place on he marke before joining o he EU, which is no possible according o he CAP regulaions. The supply funcion provides us wih very imporan informaion on he marke. I deermines he quaniy which will appear on he marke in he fuure. I also shows ha he producers surplus, which deermines he poenial of he secor even in he case of hard condiions. The organizaions of producers complain on he low marke price. They eiher do no give he cos or give only one value alhough here is a large variance among he producers. (However he prices were high in In a previous sudy he supply funcion has been esimaed by regression analysis [Nyárs, Vizvári 2005]. The ime series has been finished exacly a he momen of he joining o EU. I is imporan o find ou if he new srucure changed he supply significanly. The presen sudy analyses he supply funcion according o he new daa unil he end of Overview of lieraure Any heory of economics deermining a supply funcion is based on some hypoheses like (i he exisence and presence of price elasiciies, (ii he behaviour of he producers is known, e.g. i can be described by adapive price expecaions [Nerlove 1958]. The price elasiciies of supply were observed for he major Bulgarian agriculural commodiies (in he crop secor and esimaed he elasiciies of oal supply and of markeed quaniies [Mishev e al. 1998]. The auhors drew conclusions ha he own price elasiciy of

9 178 Bull. of he Szen Isván Univ., Gödöllı, producs supplied o he marke is higher han hose in he developed counries. Tha high own price elasiciy of supply is represened by he srong shorage of grain on he domesic marke over he ransiion period. In an oher sudy deal wih he supply funcion in Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia. The auhor discovered ha he agriculural marke could be explored economerically only in he case of Slovenia [Hallam 1998]. The agriculural producion and price rends were examined in Slovenia over he period beween 1961 and 1995 [Erjavec e al. 1998]. The auhors calculaed he price elasiciies for six main agriculural producs. These producs were ranked ino hree groups. High supply elasiciies were indicaed forhcoming he value 1.0 for beef and maize. These farm producs are no regulaed by Sae, bu depended on marke rends. Boh of hese producs were supposed o be weakly influenced by he fixed facors of producion. The second group was wih low supply elasiciies below 0 and lower (pig and poaoes. In he examined period pork producion was under marke condiions, however he governmen highly inervened in he marke. The hird group of farm producs was characerized by whea and milk. Elasiciy coefficiens were close o zero, wih high degrees of Sae regulaion in whea and milk marke organisaions. The changes in he price of he produc subsiues had no significan impac on producion [Mishev e al. 1998]. They deeced a srong correlaion beween he purchased quaniy of a produc and he prices of he oher producs analysed. An oher sudy highlighed he agriculural supply in ransiion economies [Hallam 1998]. The auhor found i ironic ha while he economic ransiions make he knowledge of agriculural supply response o prices imporan, he enailed srucural breaks in fundamenal economic behaviour make modelling problemaic. The auhor used sandard dynamic economeric models (Kalman filer. He declares ha due o he far-reaching implicaions of ransiion and he relaively shor and ofen unsable pos-ransiion period consisen pos-ransiion series will no commonly provide adequae degrees of freedom for convenional economeric supply analyses. He also examined ha farm-level panel daa ses preended o supply analysis based on he profi funcion, are no available. However, he inference of a varying parameer model via an updaing procedure such as he Kalman filer is appropriae only under he assumpion ha he parameers are changing coninuously hroughou he sample period while mainaining long-run equilibrium (coinegraing relaionships beween he variables [Charemza 1993]. He saes ha he ransiion process in he CEEC s is of a differen naure and is bes explained by a kind of coninuous srucural change wih consan long-run relaionships operaing for he pre- and pos-ransiion periods. Analysing he ransiion economies, researchers have o face he problem of he lengh of he ime series. recommended ha Long enough ime series mus have a leas 15 annual observaions or 24 quarerly [Blangiewicz e al. 1993]. In he presen sudy he dae for hird years of have been used, i.e. he lengh of ime series is 32. In 1992, a sudy were published abou he welfare effecs of accession o he EC on he Spanish hog marke. The analysis examined he effecs of he accession in 1986 o he EC on he Spanish hog marke wihin an economeric supply and demand framework. According o he auhors enry o he EC resuled in increased impors, a sharp decline in prices, increased Spanish consumpion and reduced levels of Spanish hog producion. Pig producers los an

10 On he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke 179 esimaed 1.6 billion ECUs and evidence indicaes ha governmen suppor o hog producers represened abou 1% of losses (Albiac and Garcia In Hungary, he apparen sagnaion in oal pig numbers conceals he changes in pig producion srucure. According he auhors he evenual erminaion of he inervenion buying of cereals would give some impeus o pig farming. They expeced ha if ha condiion was me, he number of pigs would rise over 4.5 million by Opimally, if he cancellaion of he inervenion in he marke of cereals was accompanied by improving efficiency (mehodically ha would include cuing back general operaing coss by 10 percen, improving he uilisaion of feed by 10 percen and raionalizing labour inpu, by 2010 he number of pigs would exceed 5.2 million, wih he number of sows increasing a an even more dynamic rae, reaching 380 housand (he level of he second half of This, however, would require he acceleraion of he ineviable srucural reform and he availabiliy of he funds required by he modernisaion projecs. The model findings sugges ha, even considering he bes scenario, pig farming can reduce he increasing pressure on he Hungarian marke in cereals arising due o he surplus quaniies produced, only o a raher moderae exen (Udovecz e al According o here is no reliable invesigaion of producers behaviour in he Hungarian mea marke. There are indicaions ha adapive price expecaion is presen in Hungarian markes in general. On he oher hand he parameer of his expecaion behaviour is no unique and a he same ime indicaions show he presence of oher ypes of expecaions, e.g. he exrapolaive one, oo [Lakner e al. 2000]. Maerials and Mehods One reasonable assumpion is ha here is an underlying dynamics on he marke. If he imporan inpus of he producion are expensive hen he farmer can expec only low or even negaive profi. Therefore he producion will decrease. In he opposie case, i.e. he unpus are cheap he farmer expecs high profi and he producion increases. Thus he inpu prices a he beginning of he producion are imporan. The duraion of he producion is approximaely 6 monhs. Thus he hypohesis is ha he inpu prices lagged by he ime periods have he greaes influence on he curren value of he producion. If a producer suffers losses for a long ime, hen he producion has no sense from he economic poin of view hus i will be finished. The marke is a dynamic sysem as he producer esimaes he fuure profi from he presen sae of he marke on decides on he fuure producion. This means ha he sae of he marke is deermined by previous saes. In Hungary he animals are slaughered in he age of 8 monhs. Thus, he size of he curren pig populaion is deermined by he inpu and oupu prices 8 monhs earlier. This assumpion is also imporan from a echnical poin of view as here are available daa on he pig populaion according o he mehodology of EU in every fourh monh (hird of a year. Afer he poliical urnover of 1990 a grea srucural change was experienced in Hungarian agriculure. In his research he ime periods from he 1 s hird of 1996 o he 4 h hird of 2006 has been invesigaed. In his period he pig populaion was approximaely he half of he former peak. Beween 2002 and 2006, he pig populaion decreased from o

11 180 Bull. of he Szen Isván Univ., Gödöllı, In Hungary he main feed of pigs is maize. Thus he following four facors and heir nonlinear funcions were considered as independen variables in he regression analysis, which deermine he pork producion. These facors are: (i he 8 monhs earlier corn price, (ii he 8 monhs earlier marke price, (iii he 8 monhs earlier pigle price, and (iv he curren chicken price. Resuls The Esimaes of he Old Equaions In he previous sudy for regression equaions have been esablished [Nyárs and Vizvári 2005]: Equaion (1 (1 = m p l 2 (R 2 =247 Equaion (2 (2 = m p l c (R 2 =630 Equaion (3 = ( m ( 2 m p ( ( l ( l 2 (R 2 =884 Equaion (4 (4 = m ( l (R 2 = 936, ( p ( m 2 where he following noaion is used: Π m p l c c he index of ime uni (ime is measured in hirds of a year he pork producion in ime period he price of maize in ime period he marke price of pig in ime period he price of pigle in ime period he price of chicken in ime period These regression equaions esimaed he producion of a hird year in 2006 as able 1 presens: Table 1. Esimaed poenial of he Hungarian pork secor in 2006 according o he differen regression equaions. Equaion 7 ( l 2 3 Esimaed Producion, ons ( ( ( ( Source: Auhors own calculaion, based on HCSO daabase The average was ons, i.e. hree ou of he four equaions esimaed he curren poenial well. Anoher way o characerize he robusness of he regression equaion is o

12 On he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke 181 calculae he correlaion of he rajecory afer he beginning of 2004 and he esimaed ime series. Table 2 presens he correlaion beween he real rajecory and he esimaed ime series. Table 2. Correlaion of he real rajecory and he ime series esimaed by he regression equaions Equaion Source: Auhors own calculaion Correlaion on he new segmen of he rajecory ( ( ( ( Resuls Based on New Regression Equaions Using he same independen variables, he coefficiens of he regression equaion change. Here are he new equaions: Equaion (5 (5 = m p l 2 (R 2 = Equaion (6 (6 = m p l c (R 2 = Equaion (7 = ( m m ( p 2 ( ( l 2 (R 2 =854 Equaion (8 (8 = m 5 775( p 2 (R 2 = c ( m Some new regression equaions have been deermined as well: Equaion (9 8 = m ( m ( l ( p c (R 2 = Equaion (10 (10 2 = ( m l (R 2 = Resuls Based on Price Elasiciies 13.59l ( l ( l ( l ( l ( l p

13 182 Bull. of he Szen Isván Univ., Gödöllı, Price elasiciies are ofen hough a good ool o forecas or esimae supplier s answer o changes on marke. Therefore any resul obained in a differen way mus be compared he ones produced by elasiciies. In general if facor y is dependen on facors x 1,,x n and has elasiciies e 1,,e n hen y is forecased by he following equaion: where c is an appropriae consan. y = c x 1 e1 x n en, (*** Two ypes of price elasiciy of pigmea was considered: own and maize price elasiciies. Boh of hem were calculaed wih lags from zero o nine. The formula (***. i.e. he appropriae consan c, was deermined wih n=2 and he wo lags were equal. Some elasiciies had oo high absolue value so he calculaion could no be carried on (Table 3. Table 3. Pork and maize price elasiciies in Hungary (January July 2007 Lag Own Price Elasiciy Maize Price Elasiciy 0 0, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,87919 Source: Auhors own calculaion, based on HCSO and AKI daabase ons monh forecased value producion Figure 1. Pork producion and forecased producion wih lag0 Source: Auhors own calculaion, based on HCSO and AKI daabase

14 On he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke 183 In deermining elasiciies he daa of 40 monhs were aken ino consideraion. The resuls below for monhs 41 and 42 below show he real forecasing power of he mehod. The pairs wih lag 0 and 8 behave significanly much beer han he oher ones (Figure 1, figure 2. Their consans are and , respecively ons monh forecased value Figure 2. Pork producion and forecased producion wih lag8 Source: Auhors own calculaion, based on HCSO and AKI Daabase producion To show he bad qualiy of he resuls based on oher lags han 0 and 8 here is he figure obained by lag 7 (Figure 3: ons forecased value producion monh Figure 3. Pork producion and forecased producion wih lag7 Source: Auhors own calculaion, based on HCSO and AKI daabase

15 184 Bull. of he Szen Isván Univ., Gödöllı, One can obain he following conclusion. The price elasiciy mehod is no a suiable ool of forecasing in our paricular case. As a maer fac he underlying reason is more general. The formula of ype (*** is very inflexible. Mos of he iems do no obey a law like his. I a well-known phenomena ha if price elasiciy is measured based on real life daa hen he sandard deviaion is higher han he mean, which means ha even he sign of he elasiciy canno deermined for sure. On he oher hand he relaive good behaviour of lag 8 proves ha here is an effec 8 monhs delay on his marke. I is more or less a naural phenomena as 8 mohs is he ime necessary o ge final produc from a hog. Esimaion of he Supply Funcion Prices are given in Hungarian Forin (HUF of he year HUF of 2004 equals o 100 HUF of 1996 (In is approximaely 260 HUF. The supply funcion is considered in he range of he marke price [100 HUF, 160 HUF] as he real marke price was varying in he same range. Three characerisic values of he pigle price are considered: HUF, HUF, and HUF. 180 HUF is considered o be he maximum and 130 HUF for he lowes chicken real marke price. Each equaion obained from regression analysis auomaically gives an esimaion of he supply funcion. One obains he esimaed producion from he equaion if he values of he four facors are deermined. The funcion is in he 5-dimensional space. The supply funcion can be ploed only if he values of some facors are fixed. As he main par of he cos is deermined by feed, i seems o be reasonable o invesigae he supply funcion in wo exreme cases. One is he siuaion of high maize yields resuling ha he price of he maize equals o he inervenion price of he EU. The oher is he case of low yields implying a high maize price in he marke.. The firs exreme case represens he maximum poenial of he Hungarian pork secor if a he same ime he price of pigle is low. This siuaion may occur in a second consecuive year of high maize yields. In he firs year here is a high demand for pigles and he price of pigles is high. The marke reacs o ha posiion by increasing he pigle producion. In he second year he price of pigles goes down because he supply and demand of pigles becomes balanced. Table 4 shows he numerical resuls of esimaing he amoun of pork produced by equaions (1 o (4. The assumed prices are as follows: he real marke price of pig is 160 HUF/kg, he deflaed price of a pigle is HUF, he real price of 1 kg maize is 10 HUF. Table 4. Maximum poenial of he Hungarian pork secor according o he differen regression equaions Equaion Esimaed Producion, ons ( ( ( ( Source: Auhors own calculaion, based on HCSO daabase The conclusion drawn from he numerical resuls is ha he maximum poenial of he Hungarian pork producion is around ons per one hird of a year as one esimae is oo pessimisic and wo ones are opimisic.

16 On he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke 185 Anoher exreme case is when he secor is in a very bad posiion as he coss are high and a he same ime oher agens of he global marke are ransporing cheap mea o he Hungarian marke, i.e. in spie of he high coss he marke price of pork is low. In his case he deflaed marke price is supposed o be 100 HUF. The pigle real price is HUF. As he yield was small, he real price of maize is assumed o be 20 HUF. In his very pessimisic case he Hungarian producion will collapse. Conclusions An uncerain siuaion can be observed in he Hungarian pork marke in he las seven years. The main reasons for his are he increasing quaniy of pork impor, he decrease of pig mea consumpion as he resul of he permanen change of he cusomer s behavior, and he decreasing compeiiveness of he Hungarian farms. Insead of well-defined conrol of he marke and he absence of modernizaion, he lack of co-ordinaion ad hoc measuremens have aken place before he EU accession. The farmers had o face uncerain siuaions and were unable o make appropriae decisions. The marke price changed significanly several imes wihin his period, which has made possible he mahemaical analysis of he supply funcion. Several linear and non-linear regression equaions have been developed for he supply funcion. All of hem can lead o he same conclusions. In he case of good marke posiion, i.e. when he inpu prices are low and pork marke prices are high, he Hungarian pork secor can produce approximaely 579 housand meric ons of pigs for slaugher (in live weigh. In he opposie case, when he inpu prices are high and pork marke prices are low he producion collapses. The fuure of he Hungarian pork secor depends on he speed of developing he producer segmen in he marke, which is able o make profis under disadvanageous circumsances. References ALBIAC, J.. AND GARCIA, P. [1992]: The effecs of Spain s enry ino he European Communiy on he Spanish hog Marke. Eurpoean Review of Agriculure Economics. (19 199: BLANGIEWICZ, M., BOLT, T.D., CHAREMZA, W.W [1993]: Alernaive daa for he dynamic modelling of he Eas European ransformaion, Discussion Paper DP Cenre for Economic Forecasing. London Business School. CHAREMZA, W.W. [1993]: Economic ransformaion and long-run relaionships: The case of Poland. Discussion Paper DP Cenre for Economic Forecasing. London Business School. ERJAVEC, E., GAMBELLI, D., TURK J. [1998]: Supply Response aand Srucural Breaks in Slovenian Agriculure. Opions Médierranéennes. Série B. Eudes e Recherches. No pp. HALLAM, D. [1998]: Analysing Agriculural Supply Response in Economies in Transiion. Opions Médierranéennes. Série B. Eudes e Recherches. 22: Hungarian Cenral Saisical Office : Monhly Bullein of Saisics. Hungarian Cenral Saisical Office (HCSO. Budapes Hungarian Mea and Livesock Commission [2004]: Saisics 2003 (in Hungarian.

17 186 Bull. of he Szen Isván Univ., Gödöllı, LAKNER, Z., VIZVÁRI, B., KOVÁCS, E., BACSI Z., [2000]: Empirical Analysis of Producers' Price. Expecaions. Cenral European Journal of Operaions Research, (7 4: pp. MISHEV, P., TZONEVA, M., LVANOVA, N. [1998]: Supply Response of Bulgarian Agriculure over he Transiion Period. Opions Médierranéennes. Série B. Éudes e Recherches. 22: NERLOVE, M. [1958]: Adapive expecaions and cobweb phenomena, Quarerly Journal of Economics. 72 (2: NYÁRS, L. AND VIZVÁRI, B. [2005]: On he esimaion of he supply funcion of he Hungarian pork marke, Journal of Cenral European Agriculure, 6 (4: UDOVECZ, G., POPP, J., POTORI, N. [2006]: Assessmen of he shor- and mid-erm impacs of implemening Single Paymen Scheme in Hungary. Impacs of Decoupling and Cross Compliance on Agriculure in he Enlarged EU. 93rd seminar of he EAAE. Sepember 22nd 23rd 2006 Prague, Czech Republic. Auhors: Levene Nyárs PhD, research fellow Agriculural Economics Research Insiue H-1093 Budapes Zsil u. 3-5 nyars.levene@akii.hu Béla Vizvári CSc, Professor Dep. of Operaions Research, ELTE, H-1117 Budapes, Pázmány Péer séány 1/C Dep. of Indusrial Engineering, Easern Medierranean Universiy. Mersin 10, Turkey vizvari@cs.ele.hu