Application of state-of-the-art geomathematical methods in water protection

Átírás

1 Application of state-of-the-art geomathematical methods in water protection - on the example of the data series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System - by István Gábor Hatvani Ph.D. dissertation summary Ph.D. program for Environmental Earth Sciences at the Ph.D. School of Environmental Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest Chair of the doctoral school & the Environmental Earth Sciences Doctoral Program: Prof. András Galácz (Department of Paleontology) Supervisor: József Kovács Ph.D. (Department of Physical and Applied Geology, Budapest) External advisor: János Korponai Ph.D. (West Transdanubian Water Authority, Department Kis-Balaton, Keszthely & University of West Hungary, Department of Chemistry and Environmental Sciences, Szombathely) Budapest, 2014

2 Table of contents Introduction... 2 Materials and methodology... 3 Results... 4 Acknowledgements... 6 Published papers and abstracts related to this Ph.D Selected references

3 Introduction Water is perhaps our most precious common resource, and with urbanization and the spread of agriculture and industry it has become, and is becoming more and more exposed to contamination and misuse and lakes are no exception. They are sensitive to environmental changes and anthropogenic effects. Lake Balaton being, the largest shallow freshwater lake in Central Europe, also is vulnerable to these impacts. To protect it (and primarily Keszthely Bay) against elevated nutrient loads, the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System (KBWPS) was constructed as a mitigation wetland at the mouth of the River Zala, the largest tributary of the lake (Kárpáti ed., 1980; Tátrai et al., 2000). The construction of the KBWPS was planned in two phases. Phase I (18 km 2 Upper Reservoir) was inundated and began operating in 1985, it became an open lake dominated by algae. Phase II (the Lower Reservoir, total area 51 km 2 ), however, is still under construction. A part of it (16 km 2 ), which is covered by reed-dominated macrophytes, was inundated at the end of 1992, and the rest is planned to be completed in The present work has three main aims: (1) to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methods in water quality evaluation; in particular, on the example of the long term data series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System (KBWPS), (2) to describe the processes evolving in the KBWPS over three decades of water quality samples using explorative data analysis methods, and provide excess information to support the better understanding of the system. (3) to suggest a means of recalibrating the (monitoring) system, meaning that it could be finetuned to follow the evolving processes. Furthermore, the study aims to deal with a segment of the paradox: In general we are rich in data, but poor in information (Clement, 2013). This is particularly true for Hungary, where hundreds of thousands of data lie around without being assessed in sufficient depth. In the case of the study area the more than 250,000 data assessed represented the fruit of approx. 30 years of hard work and monitoring. This fact urged me to try to extract as much excess information as possible with the aid of stochastic modeling. This study (and more generally the approach used in it) could hopefully help scientists to gain a broader perspective on processes evolving in such water systems as the KBWPS; and with regard to the study area, when it comes to finishing the 2

4 second phase of the reservoir system ( ), more knowledge will be available on what can be expected regarding the quality of the water entering Lake Balaton, and the conservation of the nature preserve wetland area. Materials and methodology In the course of the research the time series of a total of 24 weekly and 3 daily sampled natural parameters (variables) were used from 12 sampling sites of the KBWPS and one each from the River Zala and Keszthely Bay for various time intervals, out of which the longest was The analyzed dataset comprised approximately 250,000 data. The methods used comprised the following: descriptive statistics and elementary time series analyses to get an overview on the data at hand and point out the key events in the history of the KBWPS; cluster-, discriminant-, principal component analyses with Wilks lambda statistics to o find those water quality parameters which give rise to the factors driving their relationships, o find similar spatial water quality patterns, o shed light on the new stabile state of the system (Scheffer et al., 1993); dynamic factor analysis (Kovács et al., 2004) to determine which external influences (latent effects) dominated in determining the long-term behavior of the River Zala; variogram analysis to suggest a sampling frequency for the KBWPS that is suitable to calculate annual nutrient loads without significant information loss; wavelet spectrum analysis to give an overall picture of the parameters capability of following the seasonal changes in the different habitats of the KBWPS. 3

5 Results 1) The separation of the point and non-point nutrient loads is extremely difficult. However, despite this, with the aid of dynamic factor analysis, changes in the governing processes of the River Zala were determined, specifically the decreased role of diffuse-, and the increased role of point source nutrient loads, as well as biological activity, as indicated by the role of water temperature. 2) By means of cluster analysis it was found that the border between Phase I and Phase II changes dynamically, the most explicit change being after 1997, when SS 202i disconnected from the cluster group covering Phase II and connected to the one covering most of the SSs of Phase I. This happened as a result of water management issues (constant water level), which degraded the macrophyte vegetation in the vicinity of SS 202i. 3) The use of input-output analysis enabled a discussion of the P retention capacity of the KBWPS in which the decreased overall output to Lake Balaton could be demonstrated. This was due to the economic changes, the water quality ameliorating measures taken, and the beneficial effects of the KBWPS. Furthermore, it becomes clear that since the publication of the work of Somlyódy et al. (2003) the nutrient retention capacity of the system has not changed. 4) a) Using cluster- and principal component analysis with Wilks lambda statistics, it was found that the adverse decrease of nutrients was responsible for Keszthely Bay forming a cluster group alone in the low runoff years from the perspective of the KBWPS. b) With reference to the determining role of runoff, it was found that as far as the stochastic relations are concerned, in the years with low runoff, Kszt was not the SS where the most influential parameters underwent a change. On the contrary before the year when runoff was low - the inorganic parameters were those which dominated the water body of Phase II to the greatest extent, which after the year 2000 became co-dominated by the parameters describing eutrophication and the nutrient cycle. This was the period when Keszthely Bay formed a distinct area with regard to the KBWPS. 4

6 5) Using periodicity analysis a new perspective was gained on the vulnerability of wetlands. As seen from the input-output analysis, 40% extra runoff and approx % extra nutrient input is brought by the canals coming from Somogy County. These disrupt the capacity of the water quality parameters measured in Phase II to follow annual periodicity. Therefore, if the buffer capacity of the wetland were to be increased against the extra nutrient loads with the inundation of the remaining areas it would presumably be able to follow the seasonal changes (i.e. indicate annual periodicity) to a higher degree. In terms of periodic behavior it would be less influenced by sudden nutrient loads. 6) Based on the elementary time series and cluster results it has been suggested that, in order to preserve the wetland area of Phase II, its water-level management should be altered so that it is able to follow the seasonal fluctuations. 7) Using cluster-, principal component- and Wilks lambda analyses the new stable state of Keszthely Bay was determined, where the KBWPS functions as the location of intensive planktonic eutrophication, which facilitates the movement of the eutrophication processes upstream to Phase I(After the after reaching the partially finished state of the KBWPS (1992), neither the changes in the background processes of Phase II nor the changes in runoff and loadings were able to influence the solid state of the stochastic interdependences at Kszt, while its trophic processes (observable in their continuous decrease & ) moved upstream from Keszthely Bay to Phase I). 8) Based on the coded cluster result it has been proven, from the perspective of Lake Balaton, that both the outlet of the KBWPS and Keszthely Bay form separate water quality areas (water-bodies) of Lake Balaton after ) Using semivariograms it was determined that the present daily sampling could be rarefied to three days regarding TN & TP, if the aim is nutrient load estimation. Such a step would result in a reduction in water management costs and the more economic function of the monitoring network. This principle could have wider applicability in the management of other water bodies as well. 5

7 Acknowledgements First of all I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor József Kovács Ph.D. and my external supervisor, János Korponai Ph.D. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my parents Mária Aszódi & Prof. Dr. István László Hatvani; and to closest family I have, my Grandmother Márta Chiovini who supported me all the way I am thankful for the professional help of Dr. Adrienne Clement, Dr. László Márkus, Prof. Lajos Pap, Prof. Antal Füst and Prof. Alfred P. Blaschke and for the stimulating discussions I had with Prof. Ádám Kiss, Prof. Ákos Török, Dr. István Tátrai. I owe thanks to György Süle for providing me with the datasets, Dr. Nóra Szilágyi for providing the Matlab *m program, Péter Tanos for his help with the artwork, Paul Thatcher for the English review, and each and every colleague with whom I worked. Published papers and selected abstracts written in the framework of this Ph.D. JOURNAL PAPERS, SCIENTIFIC PEER-REVIEWED Hatvani István, Kovács József, Korponai János, Kovácsné Székely Ilona A Kis-Balaton Vízvédelmi Rendszer (KBVR) hosszú távú fizikai, kémiai és biológiai paramétereinek elemzése (in English: The analysis of the long term chemical, biological and physical parameters time series in the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) HIDROLÓGIAI KÖZLÖNY 89: (6)15-18 (2009) Kovács József,, Korponai János, Székely Kovács Ilona Morlet wavelet and autocorrelation analysis of long-term data series of the Kis-Balaton water protection system (KBWPS) ECOL ENG 36: (10) (2010); IF: 2.203, Kovács József, Székely Kovács Ilona, Jakusch Pál, Korponai János Analysis of long-term water quality changes in the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System with time series-, cluster analysis and Wilks' lambda distribution ECOL ENG 37: (4) (2011); IF: Kovács J, Hatvani I G, Kovácsné Székely I, Tanos P, Korponai J Key question of sampling frequency estimation during system calibration, on the example of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System s data series GEORG AGRIC 14: (1)53-68 (2011) 6

8 Kovács J, Korponai J, Kovácsné Székely I, Hatvani I G Introducing sampling frequency estimation using variograms in water research with the example of nutrient loads in the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System (W Hungary) ECOL ENG 42: (2012); IF: 2.203** József Kovács, Mária Nagy, Brigitta Czauner, Ilona Székely Kovács, Andrea K Borsodi, István Gábor Hatvani Delimiting sub-areas in water bodies using multivariate data analysis on the example of Lake Balaton (W Hungary) JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 110: (2012); IF: 3.245** Hatvani I G, Kovács J, Korponai J Mintavételezési gyakoriság optimalizálása variogram függvénnyel a Kis-Balaton Vízvédelmi Rendszer példáján. (in English: Optimizing sampling frequency using variograms at the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) TERMÉSZETVÉD KÖZLEM 18: pp (2012) Hatvani, I.G., Magyar, N., Zessner, M., Kovács, J., Blaschke, A.P., 2014a. The Water Framework Directive: Can more information be extracted from groundwater data? A case study of Seewinkel, Burgenland, eastern Austria. Hydrogeology Journal, DOI: (in press) Hatvani, I.G., Kovács, J., Márkus, L., Clement, A., Hoffmann, R., Korponai, J., 2014b. Determining background factors in the time series of an agricultural watershed using dynamic factor analysis (River Zala, W-Hungary). Journal of Contaminant Hydrology (submitted to journal). Hatvani, I.G., Clement, A., Kovács, J., Kovácsné, Sz.I., Korponai, J., 2014c. Assessing waterquality data: the relationship between the water quality amelioration of Lake Balaton and the construction of its mitigation wetland. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 40 (1); DOI: (in press). 7

9 BOOK CHAPTER József Kovács; Péter Tanos; János Korponai; Ilona Kovácsné Székely; Károly Gondár; Katalin Gondár-Sőregi; István Gábor Hatvani Analysis of Water Quality Data for Scientists In: Kostas Voudouris; Dimitra Voutsa (szerk.) Water Quality and Water Pollution: Evaluation of Water Quality Data. Rijeka: InTech Open Access Publisher, pp (ISBN: ) FULL TEXT CONFERENCE PAPERS Tanulmány a Kis-Balaton Vízvédelmi Rendszer (KBVR) mintavételezési pontjainak csoportosulásáról és vízkémiai paramétereinek térbeli alakulásáról (in English: Essay on the grouping of the sampling sites at the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System and the spatial distribution of the concentration values of its chemical parameters) In: Förköli Gábor, Máhr Borbála, Sági Tamás (szerk.) ADSUMUS VIII.: Tanulmányok a X. Eötvös Konferencia előadásaiból Budapest: ELTE Eötvös József Collegium, pp (ISBN: ), Kovács József, Barcza Márton, Kovácsné Székely Ilona, Jakusch Pál, Bernáth György Adatelemző módszerek alkalmazásának feltételei és lehetőségei a felszíni és felszín alatti víz védelmében (in English: Necessary conditions and possibilities of data analysis methods in surface-, and sub-surface water protection) In: Bunyevácz József, ifj Csonka Pál, Fodor István, Gálosi-Kovács Bernadett (szerk.) A fenntartható fejlődés, valamint a környezet- és természetvédelem összefüggései a Kárpátmedencében: e-könyv Pécs: PTE, MTA PAB, pp. (ISBN: ) ENGLISH ABSTRACTS A Kis-Balaton Vizvédelmi Rendszer hosszútávú adatsorainak elemzése (in English: The assessment of the long term time series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: XXIX. OTDK Fizika, Földtudományok, Matematika szekció Összefoglók Szombathely: Nyugat-magyarországi Egyetem Kiadó, pp. 219 (ISBN: ) A Kis-Balaton Vizvédelmi Rendszer hosszútávú adatsorainak vizsgálata (in English: The analysis of the long term time series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: X. Eötvös Konferencia Budapest: Eötvös József Collegium Diákbizottsága, pp

10 Többváltozós és idősoros módszerek alkalmazása a Kis-Balaton Vizvédelmi Rendszer adatsoraira (in English: The application of multivariate- and time series methods on the data series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: XL. Ifjú Szakemberek Ankétja Magyarhoni Földtani Társulat, pp , Kovács József, Korponai János Mintavételezési gyakoriság becslése a Kis-Balaton Vízvédelmi Rendszeren (in English: Sampling frequency estimation on the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: VII. Magyar Természetvédelmi Biológiai Konferencia Program és absztraktkötetdebreceni Egyetem, pp. 190 (ISBN: ) HUNGARIAN ABSTRACTS A Kis-Balaton Vizvédelmi Rendszer hosszútávú adatsorainak elemzése (in English: The assessment of the long term time series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: XXIX. OTDK Fizika, Földtudományok, Matematika szekció Összefoglók Szombathely: Nyugat-magyarországi Egyetem Kiadó, pp. 219 (ISBN: ) A Kis-Balaton Vizvédelmi Rendszer hosszútávú adatsorainak vizsgálata (in English: The analysis of the long term time series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: X. Eötvös Konferencia Budapest: Eötvös József Collegium Diákbizottsága, pp Többváltozós és idősoros módszerek alkalmazása a Kis-Balaton Vizvédelmi Rendszer adatsoraira (in English: The application of multivariate and time series methods on the data series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: XL. Ifjú Szakemberek Ankétja Magyarhoni Földtani Társulat, pp , Kovács József, Korponai János Mintavételezési gyakoriság becslése a Kis-Balaton Vízvédelmi Rendszeren (in English: Sampling frequency estimation ont he Kis-Balaton Water Protection System) In: VII. Magyar Természetvédelmi Biológiai Konferencia Program és absztraktkötetdebreceni Egyetem, pp. 190 (ISBN: ) 9

11 ENGLISH ABSTRACTS I G Hatvani, J Kovács, J Korponai, I Kovácsné Székely The examination of time series of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System (KBWPS) applying state of the art statistical methods In: XIII. Congress of Hungarian Geomathematics and the II. Congress of Croatian and Hungarian Geomathematics pp Hatvani I G, Kovács J, Korponai J, Kovácsné Székely I, Jakusch P Periodicity, memory and cluster analysis on the dataseries of a mitigation wetland (Kis- Balaton Water Protection system, W - Hungary) In: Vera Pawlowsky-Glahn(szerk.)14th Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geosciences,Budapest: pp. 372 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on data series of Hidvégi Pond (W Hungary) In: XLI. Ifjú Szakemberek Ankétja programfüzet: Meeting of Young Geoscientists Magyarhoni Földtani Társulat, pp I G Hatvani, N Magyar, P Tanos, J Korponai, I K Székely, A Herzig, J Kovács Determining anthropogenic effects using principal component analysis on a fluvial (E Hungary) and two lake ecosystems (W Hungary, E Austria) In: Giovanni Visco (szerk.) CMA4CH: Use of Multivariate Analysis and Chemometrics in Cultural Heritage and Environment. Roma, Olaszország, pp (ISBN: ) I G Hatvani, M N Reskóné, I K Székely, P Tanos, J Korponai, J Kovács Determining the temporal sampling frequency of Kis-Balaton and the spatial sampling frequency of Lake Velence (W Hungary) using variograms In: Giovanni Visco (szerk.) CMA4CH: Use of Multivariate Analysis and Chemometrics in Cultural Heritage and Environment. Roma, Olaszország, pp (ISBN: ) I G Hatvani, J Kovács, L Márkus, J Korponai, R Hoffmann, A Clement, László Márkus, Vilmos Prokaj (szerk.) Identification of Background Forces Driving the Fluctuation in the Time Series of an Agricultural Watershed Using Dynamic Factor Analysis In: László Márkus, Vilmos Prokaj (szerk.) Abstracts of the 29-th European Meeting of Statisticians. Konferencia helye, ideje: Budapest, Magyarország, Budapest: p

12 István Gábor Hatvani, János Korponai, Ilona Székely Kovács, Adrienne Clement, József Kovács Zsuzsanna Heiszler, Róbert Hohol (szerk.) Assessment of long term water quality data to study the relationship between the oligotrophication of Lake Balaton and the construction of the Kis-Balaton Water Protection System In: Zsuzsanna Heiszler, Róbert Hohol (szerk.) 32nd Congress of the International Society of Limnology: Programme & book of abstracts. Konferencia helye, ideje: Budapest, Magyarország, Budapest: MTA Balatoni Limnológiai Kutatóintézet, p. 279.(ISBN: ) Selected references Clement, A., Personal communication, 8. December Freeden, W., Nashed, M.Z., Sonar, T., Handbook of geomathematics. Springer Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg, Germany 1350p. Istvánovics, V., Clement A., Somlyody L., Specziar A., G.-Toth L., Padisak J., Updating water quality targets for shallow Lake Balaton (Hungary), recovering from eutrophication. Hydrobiologia 581, Kárpáti, I., (Ed.) A Balaton kutatásának újabb eredményei. (in English: Latest research results of Lake Balaton), MTA Veszprémi Akadémiai Bizottsága, monograph Veszprém, Hungary Kovács, J., Márkus, L., Halupka, G., Dynamic Factor Analysis for Quantifying Aquifer Vulnerability, Acta Geol. Hung. 47, Scheffer, M., Hosper, S.H., Meijer, M-L., Moss, B., Jeppesen, E., Alternative equilibria in shallow lakes. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 8, Somlyódy, L., Clement, A., Istvánovics, V., G. Tóth, L., Jolánkai, G., Sisák, I., Padisák, J., Specziár, A., Evaluation of the water quality of Lake Balaton, Study to provide scientific basis for the modification of the government regulation 1038/1999 (IV.21) (in Hungarian) manuscript, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest. Tátrai I., Kálmán, M., Korponai, J., Paulovits, G., Pomogyi, P., The role of the Kis- Balaton Water Protection System in the control of water quality of Lake Balaton, Ecological Engineering 16, Wetzel, R.G., Limnology: Lake and River Ecosystems, third ed. Academic Press, San Diego, CA, USA, 1006p. 11