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1 ( ) *... (// : // : ). ( )... B1 A2 A2. B1. B1 A2. A2.. B1 B1..LARSWG :.. ECHOG / /.(Abbasi et al., 2005).(Samadi et al., 2008) CO2.(Francis et al., 2000).... nghahreman@ut.ac.ir : *

2 ( ). ( ). ( ). :. ) (.(Rabeson, 2002).... C º..(Frich et al., 2002). mm / / / / / / / / / / / / 0 C / / / / / / / / / / / /..(Varshavian et al., 2007).....(Sharratt, 1992) ) (. (Mateescu.et al., 2007).. (Linderholm,.2006)...(Christiansen, 2011).

3 ... : + 1 z = 0 1 if ( xk if ( xk if ( xk xj) > 0 xj) = 0 xj) < 0 ( : ( nn ( 1)( 2n + 5) t( t 1)(( 2t + 5) i= 1 Vars ( ) = 18 n( n 1)( 2n + 5) Vars ( ) = 18 m :n> :n ( ( m n t.. :z ( z = s1 var(s) 0 s + 1 var(s) if if if s > 0 s = 0 s < 0 ( α Z α/2 z zα / 2.α/. Z.. / / (GCM).. ( ) HADCM3. (SRES). (Brooks and Carrthers,.1953).(Serrano et al., 1999)...(Takeuchi et al., 2005) (H 1 ) (H 0 ). Kendal.. (1945) Man.(Serrano et al., 1999) (1975).(Turgay and Ercan, 2006).. ( ). : ( :s n 1 n s = sign( xj xk) k= 1j= 1 ( j x k x j n. k : 1. General Circulation Model 2. Special Report on Emission Scenario

4 HADCM3. (Gordon et al , Pope et al..2000), Bs*,2020s, 2055s, 2090s A1B, A2, B1 2.5 * 3.75 HADCM3 HadCM3 Baseline * Co 2 ) ( ) Co 2. (IPCC, 2007a) ( CO 2.. ( % / ).. B1 A2 P(υ obs υ ) p i } i=υ i = min{ υ... N P P n P 0 υ n=max{υ obs }.{υ obs } υ 0 =min{υ obs } P n = P 0 =. P i p i. P = / P i.p n2 = / P n1 = / P = /.( ). ( ). ( ).. GCM. (RCM).(SDSM). LARSWG. LARSWG.. υi υ. 1. Regional Circulation Model 2.Statistical DownScaling Model. P i 3. Long Ashton Research Station Wethear Generator

5 ... :. A2 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /. B1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / : :TP :TF :RP :RF... ( ).. LARSWG LARSWG.... LARSWG KS t. ( ).( ) z. /* / / / / / / /* / /* /* / / / / /* / / /* / ** /** / / /** / / /** / /* /*.. *

6 . B1 A2. LARSWG. LARSWG. ().. (LF) ( :( ) (LP) :A2 LP(2) LF(2). :B1 LP(2) LF(2). :. (LF) ( :( ) (LP) :A2 LF(1) LP(1) LF(1). :B1 LF(1) LF(1). LP(1)

7 ... : (A2 ) (3=) (2=) (1=). (B1 ) (3=) (2=) (1=). LP(1) B1. LF(2). A2 B1. A2 LF(3). (LF) ( :( ) (LP) :A2. :B1. LF(1) A2

8 () LP(1).. A1. REFERENCES Abassi, F., Malbusi, S., Babaeian, I., Asmari, M., and Brohani. R. (2010). Climate change prediction of South Khorasan province during, , by using statistical downscaling of ECHOG dat, J. Water and Soil, 24(2): , (In Farsi). Brooks, C. E. P. and Carrthers, N. (1953). Handbook of statistical methods in meteorology, London, 480 p. Carter, T. R. (1998). Changes in the thermal growing season in Nordiccountries during the past century and prospects for the future, Agric Food Sci, Finland 7, Christiansen, D. E., Steven L., and Markstrom, Lauren, E. Hay, (2011), Impacts of climate change on the growing season in the United States, Earth Interact, 15, 1 17, doi: Dubrovsky, M. (1996). Validation of the stochastic weather generator Met&ROLL, Meteorogickeo Zpravy, 49, 12. Esmaeili, R., Habibi, M., and Fallah ghalhari, Gh. (2011). The changes assessment of growth season length and freezing due to climate fluctuation Casestudy: Khorasan Razavi province, Physical Geography Research Quarterly, (73): 6982, (In Farsi). Francis, P., Burton, M. R., and Oppenheimer, C. (2000). Remote measurements of volcanic gas 425 compositions by solar occultation spectroscopy, Nature, 396, Frich, P., Alexander, L. V., DellaMarta, P., Gleason, B., Haylock, M., Klein Tank, A. M. G., and Peterson, T. (2002). Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20 th century, Climate Res, 19, Johnson, G. L., Hanson, C. L., Hardegree, S. P., and Ballard, E. B. (1996). Stochastic Weather Simulation: overview and analysis of two commonly used models, J. Applied Meteorology, 35, Lettenmaier, P., Wood, E. F., and Wallis, R. (1994). Hydroclimatological Trends in the Continental United States, , J. Climate, 7, Linderholm, H. W. (2006). Growing season changes in the last century, Agric For Meteorol, 137, Mateescu, M., Haidu, I., Veronica, S., and Tugui, O. (2007). Recent Evolution of Some Agro climatic Indices in Transylvania, Climate change, Bulletin B1 LF(3). LP(3). LP(3). B1 USAMVCN, Myneni, R. B., Hall, F. G., Sellers, P. J., and Marshak, A. L. (1995). The interpretation of spectral vegetation indexes, IEEE Trans, Geosci, Remote Sens, 33, Myneni, R. C., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G., and Nemani, R. R. (1997). Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from1981 to 1991, Nature 386, Robeson, S. M. (2002). Increasing growingseason length in Illinois during the 20th century, Climatic Change, 52, Samadi, Z., Masshah bavani, A., and Mahdavi, M. (2007). Study the effects of regression downscaling on river flood regime, Workshop on Climate change effects on water resource management, Tehran, Iran, (In Farsi). Scheifinger, H. and Menzel, A. (2003). Trends of spring time frost events and phenological dates in central Europe, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 74, Semenov, M, and Barrow, E, (1997). Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios, Climatic Change, vol. 35, Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Serrano, A., Mateos, V. L., and Garcia, J. A. (1999). Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the IberianPeninsula for the period , Phys, Chem, EARTH(B), 24 (12), Sharratt, B. S. (1992). Growing Season Trends in the Alaskan Climate Record,,ARCTIC, 45, Takeuchi, Z. X., Xu, K., and Ishidaira, H. (2003). Monitoring trend step changes in precipitation in Japanese precipitation, Journal of hydrology, 279, Turgay, P. and Ercan, K. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrological processes, 20, Issue 9, Varshavian, V., Ghahreman, N., Khalili, A., and Hajjam, S. (2007). Study the trend of early and late frost occurrences, length of frostfree period and number of frost day to reduce of agricultural damages in several climatic regions of Iran, PajuhesheKeshavarzi (Agricultural Research), 7(4), 3948, (In Farsi).

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