Aerosol hindcast : 1980 present. (As a part of AC&C activity)

Átírás

1 Aerosol hindcast : 1980 present (As a part of AC&C activity)

2 Objectives Aerosol effects on surface radiation global or regional or local dimming/brightening? GHG warming vs. aerosol cooling? Relationships between emission, aerosol loading, AOD, surface radiation, TOA flux Natural vs. industrial pollution effects Satellite records long term AVHRR and TOMS, near-term SeaWiFS, MODIS, and MISR

3 Two phases: 2007(8): From EOS to A-train high quality remote sensing data Period covering many interesting field projects (SAFARI, ACE-Asia, TRACE-P, ICARTT, MILAGRO, ARCTAS (POLARCAT) : Satellite era (AVHRR, TOMS, plus EOS and A-train) Transition from dimming to brightening (and dimming again?) Volcanic forcing, ozone depletion

4 Global aerosol change, 1980 present -- EOS + A-train -- AVHRR global average AOD over ocean, from Mishchenko et al.,

5 Aerosols in 10 and 10: MODIS GOCART MODIS GOCART

6 Aerosol variations from to : 7 land and 7 ocean regions:

7 Pollution and biomass burning emissions, - Anthropogenic emission from David Streets, biomass burning emission from van der Werf et al Anthrop. SO2 emission Anthrop. BC emission 1.40E E+00 TgC/yry TgC/yr 1.20E E E E+01 Asia 4.00E+01 Europe 2.00E E+00 North America Anthrop. OC emission 1.00E E E+00 to year 7.00E E E E E E E E AUS_su_an SAF_su_an SAM_su_an NAF_su_an ASA_su_an EUR_su_an NAM_su_an AUS_oc_an SAF_oc_an SAM_oc_an NAF_oc_an ASA_oc_an EUR_oc_an NAM_oc_an TgC/y TgC/yry 5.00E E E E E+00 Anthrop SO2 emission: NAM decrease, 0.00E+00 EUR flat, ASA increase Anthrop BC and OC emission: all increase, especially ASA Biomass burning emission: vary from year 2.00E Biomass burning OC emission 1.80E E E E E E E E E E AUS_bc_an SAF_bc_an SAM_bc_an NAF_bc_an ASA_bc_an EUR_bc_an NAM_bc_an AUS_oc_bb SAF_oc_bb SAM_oc_bb NAF_oc_bb ASA_oc_bb EUR_oc_bb NAM_oc_bb

8 Variations of over land from MODIS, MISR, GOCART GO=GOCART, MO=MODIS-Terra, MY=MODIS-Aqua, MI=MISR

9 Variations of over ocean from MODIS, MISR, GOCART GO=GOCART, MO=MODIS-Terra, MY=MODIS-Aqua, MI=MISR

10 GOCART composition over land

11 GOCART composition over ocean

12 Ocean region O1 O ALL_MO_Ocean ALL_MY_Ocean ALL_MI_Ocean ALL_GO_Ocean NEP_MO_Ocean NEP_MY_Ocean NEP_MI_Ocean NEP_GO_Ocean NAT_MO_Ocean NAT_MY_Ocean NAT_MI_Ocean NAT_GO_Ocean NIP_MO_Ocean NIP_MY_Ocean NIP_MI_Ocean NIP_GO_Ocean O1 NEP O2 NAT All Ocean O3 NIP

13 SAT_MO_Ocean SAT_MY_Ocean SAT_MI_Ocean SAT_GO_Ocean SEP_MO_Ocean SEP_MY_Ocean SEP_MI_Ocean SEP_GO_Ocean SIP_MO_Ocean SIP_MY_Ocean SIP_MI_Ocean SIP_GO_Ocean SOU_MO_Ocean SOU_MY_Ocean SOU_MI_Ocean SOU_GO_Ocean O5 SAT O6 SIP O4 SEP O7 SOU Ocean region O4 O7

14 ALL_MO_Land ALL_MY_Land ALL_MI_Land ALL_GO_Land ASA_MO_Land ASA_MY_Land ASA_MI_Land ASA_GO_Land NAM_MO_Land NAM_MY_Land NAM_MI_Land NAM_GO_Land EUR_MO_Land EUR_MY_Land EUR_MI_Land EUR_GO_Land L1 NAM L2 EUR All Land L3 ASA Land region L1 L3

15 AUS_MO_Land AUS_MY_Land AUS_MI_Land AUS_GO_Land SAF_MO_Land SAF_MY_Land SAF_MI_Land SAF_GO_Land SAM_MO_Land SAM_MY_Land SAM_MI_Land SAM_GO_Land NAF_MO_Land NAF_MY_Land NAF_MI_Land NAF_GO_Land L5 SAM L6 SAF L4 NAF L7 AUS Land region L4 L7

16 Q: How many models will participate? How should we design regional/global analysis? How do we define regions? According to different economic/emission controlling regions According to different aerosol type regimes Data availability? E.g., GEBA/BSRN