Mobilitás és Környezet Konferencia Magyar Tudományos Akadémia Budapest, 202. január 2. Az elektromobilitás kritikus kérdései Dr. Hanula Barna
2 202. 0. 2 Stand der Technik Projektion Treibhausgasemissionen Deutschland 2004-200* In Mt CO2e *Bei Beibehaltung Kernkraftausstieg **Klimaadjustiert für 2004. Temperaturkorrektur auf Basis Gradtage Source: McKinsey
202. 0. 2 Global GHG abatement cost curve beyond business-as-usual 200 Source: McKinsey
4 202. 0. 2 Energiesektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020* Source: McKinsey
5 202. 0. 2 Industriesektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020 Source: McKinsey
6 202. 0. 2 Gebäudesektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020 Source: McKinsey
7 202. 0. 2 Transportsektor: Vermeidungskostenkurve Deutschland 2020 Source: McKinsey
8 202. 0. 2 Capital intensity by abatement measure Source: McKinsey
9 202. 0. 2 Lock-in into high-carbon infrastructure Source: McKinsey
0 202. 0. 2 CO2 Limitation Forecast worldwide GHG Emission for Passenger Vehicle by Country 2020 US fuel economy mirrors Europe and Japan fleet of today Global issue, global OEMs, global solutions Europe is leading the battle CO 2 legislation is opening doors for new technologies Source: Feb. 2009 CSM Automotive Market Foresight, CO Reduction Solutions
202. 0. 2 Several players have to be a part in the game... Source: Siemens
2 202. 0. 2 Begin of standardisation
202. 0. 2 THEORIE: ENERGIETRÄGER FÜR 0,5 kwh Tafel Schokolade: 85 g Benzin: 55 g Lithium Ionen: 5.26 g Source: AVL
4 202. 0. 2 PRAXIS: UM 0,5 kwh ENERGIE ZU ERZEUGEN BENÖTIGT MAN Tafel Schokolade: 85 g Benzin: 65 g Lithium Ionen: 4.620 g (@40% SOC range) Source: AVL
5 202. 0. 2 Az áram előállítási költsége ma: 2,5-6 ct/kwh Mennyibe kerül a tárolása egy lítium-ion akkumulátorban?
6 202. 0. 2 Mennyibe kerül a tárolása egy lítium-ion akkumulátorban? kwh-s lítium-ion akkumulátor perspektivikus ára: 200 Maximális élettartama: 0 év Maximális ciklusszáma (200 munkanap/év): 2000 Tényleges kihasználható kapacitása: 0,4-(0,5) kwh Így kwh tárolási költsége > 20 ct
7 202. 0. 2 Shell Scenarios Source: Shell
8 202. 0. 2 Indicative Order of Magnitude of Energy Resources Source: Shell
9 202. 0. 2 World Hydrocarbon Resources Source: Shell
2 0 202. 0. 2 Options for Transport Fuels Source: Shell
CO 2 Emission g/km 2 202. 0. 2 Passenger Car Sales Germany 2007 vs. 2006 New Car Sales Germany 2007 vs. 2006 by CO 2 Emission class Clear consumer trend towards more fuel efficient vehicles already in 2007 (not only in Europe but also worldwide) This trend will increase during the next years Source: AID / KBA Fuel economy / CO 2 will become the key buying factor with passenger cars
2 2 202. 0. 2 CO2 Penalties according to EU Legislation Porsche DC BMW Mazda Nissan Hyundai VW Ford GM Honda Toyota Renault Fiat PSA 4605 725 560 7220 655 6840 275 675 260 6460 2895 665 2800 5795 220 5795 220 50 565 4845 280 470 805 470 805 870 7905 2470 proposed legislation 2020 System (conventional proposed Powertrain) legislation 205 Optimization as Key? the Engine alone cannot fulfil Future Requirements Slow Follower have to change their complete Range of Products by the End of the Decade Rather invest into new Technologies than in Penalties! 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 0000 2000 4000 6000 8000 20000 22000 Penalty per Vehicle by Brand [EURO]* * Based on Vehicle Sales & average CO2 Emission in 2007
OEM On-Costs 2 202. 0. 2 Technology OEM On-Cost vs. Benefit (related to Gasoline) 4.000 Parallel Full Hybrid On-Costs Reference 250 00 (Gasoline) 400 2000 $.500 Fuel.000 Consumption Potential 2.500 Cost/Benefit Ratio 2.000 (FC).500 Stop/Start CO2 Emission.000 Reduction Potential 500 Cost/Benefit Ratio (CO 2 Reduction) 0 0% 5% 0% 5% 20% 25% 0% 5% Total Gasoline Cost/Benefit Ratio Conventional Gasoline Stop / Start Functionality Mild HEV (Gasoline) Full HEV (Gasoline) Conv.Diesel Technology Changes in Conventional Gasoline Powertrain leads to limited Improvement in FC and CO2-Reduction - only Near Term Solution OEMs Reference are looking -5 % for the lowest -5 % Cost -25 per % Benefit -27 Ratio % Low Cost/Benefit Ratio @ Stop / Start Functionality, but limited Improvement Diesel Reference 50 / % Parallel Mild Hybrid 87 / % 6 / % 74 / % (Gasoline) Best Cost/Benefit Ratio @ Mild Hybrid (today) compared to Reference conventional -5 Diesel % Technology -5% -25% -9% Higher Energy Demand and higher Battery Costs for Full Hybrid Reference leads to 50 high / % Cost/Benefit 87 / % Ratio. 6 Situation / % 05 might / % change in Future. Fuel Consumption Potential Reference Conventional Changes 50 / % 87 / % 6 / % 90 / % is Gasoline Engine
2 4 202. 0. 2 Degree of Electrification Near Term Expectations Pure ICE Electric Vehicle Fleet distribution (%) % 00% Degree of Electrification Source: AVL
Microhybrid Mildhybrid Fullhybrid / Powersplit EV + Range Extender 2 5 202. 0. 2 Degree of Electrification Near Term Expectations Pure ICE Electric Vehicle Fleet distribution (%) % 00% Degree of Electrification Source: AVL
Parallel Hybrid Powersplit Hybrid EV + Range Extender 2 6 202. 0. 2 Degree of Electrification Vision 2025 Pure ICE Electric Vehicle Fleet distribution (%) % 00% Degree of Electrification Source: AVL
Direct Drive e.g. VW Twin drive EV + Range Extender Pure Range Extender e.g. GM Volt Parallel Hybrid Powersplit Hybrid 2 7 202. 0. 2 Degree of Electrification Vision 2025 Pure ICE Electric Vehicle Fleet distribution (%) Based on conv. powertrain with mainly electric driving EV with extended range, less cost but same performance % 00% Degree of Electrification Source: AVL
2 8 202. 0. 2 Range Extender Cost Comparison 25.000 AER = All Electric Range 22.500 20.000 AER pure EV 7.500 5.000 2.500 AER with RE 2.200 Saving 0.000 7.500 5.000 RE Cost RE Cost 5.400 Saving Total Range with RE 2.500 0 0 20 0 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 0 20 0 40 50 60 70 80 90 200 > 00 Source: AVL
2 9 202. 0. 2 The future Powertrain will be Different
TAMOP-4.2./B-09//KONV-200-000 Mobilitás és környezet Járműipari, energetikai és környezeti kutatások a Közép- és Nyugat-Dunántúli Régióban A projekt a Magyar Állam és az Európai Unió támogatásával, az Európai Szociális Alap társfinanszírozásával valósul meg. Nemzeti Fejlesztési Ügynökség www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu 06 40 68 68
Köszönöm megtisztelő figyelmüket!