Aerosol hindcast : 1980 present (As a part of AC&C activity)
Objectives Aerosol effects on surface radiation global or regional or local dimming/brightening? GHG warming vs. aerosol cooling? Relationships between emission, aerosol loading, AOD, surface radiation, TOA flux Natural vs. industrial pollution effects Satellite records long term AVHRR and TOMS, near-term SeaWiFS, MODIS, and MISR
Two phases: 2007(8): From EOS to A-train high quality remote sensing data Period covering many interesting field projects (SAFARI, ACE-Asia, TRACE-P, ICARTT, MILAGRO, ARCTAS (POLARCAT) 1980 2007: Satellite era (AVHRR, TOMS, plus EOS and A-train) Transition from dimming to brightening (and dimming again?) Volcanic forcing, ozone depletion
Global aerosol change, 1980 present -- EOS + A-train -- AVHRR global average AOD over ocean, from Mishchenko et al.,
Aerosols in 10 and 10: 610 010 MODIS GOCART MODIS GOCART
Aerosol variations from to : 7 land and 7 ocean regions:
Pollution and biomass burning emissions, - Anthropogenic emission from David Streets, biomass burning emission from van der Werf et al. 2007 Anthrop. SO2 emission Anthrop. BC emission 1.40E+02 6.00E+00 TgC/yry TgC/yr 1.20E+02 1.00E+02 8.00E+01 6.00E+01 Asia 4.00E+01 Europe 2.00E+01 0.00E+00 North America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - Anthrop. OC emission 1.00E+01 9.00E+00 8.00E+00 to year 7.00E+00 6.00E+00 5.00E+00 4.00E+00 3.00E+00 2.00E+00 1.00E+00 0.00E+00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - AUS_su_an SAF_su_an SAM_su_an NAF_su_an ASA_su_an EUR_su_an NAM_su_an AUS_oc_an SAF_oc_an SAM_oc_an NAF_oc_an ASA_oc_an EUR_oc_an NAM_oc_an TgC/y TgC/yry 5.00E+00 4.00E+00 3.00E+00 2.00E+00 1.00E+00 Anthrop SO2 emission: NAM decrease, 0.00E+00 EUR flat, ASA increase Anthrop BC and OC emission: all increase, especially ASA Biomass burning emission: vary from year 2.00E+01 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - Biomass burning OC emission 1.80E+01 1.60E+01 1.40E+01 1.20E+01 1.00E+01 8.00E+00 6.00E+00 4.00E+00 2.00E+00 0.00E+00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - AUS_bc_an SAF_bc_an SAM_bc_an NAF_bc_an ASA_bc_an EUR_bc_an NAM_bc_an AUS_oc_bb SAF_oc_bb SAM_oc_bb NAF_oc_bb ASA_oc_bb EUR_oc_bb NAM_oc_bb
Variations of over land from MODIS, MISR, GOCART GO=GOCART, MO=MODIS-Terra, MY=MODIS-Aqua, MI=MISR
Variations of over ocean from MODIS, MISR, GOCART GO=GOCART, MO=MODIS-Terra, MY=MODIS-Aqua, MI=MISR
GOCART composition over land
GOCART composition over ocean
Ocean region O1 O3 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 ALL_MO_Ocean ALL_MY_Ocean ALL_MI_Ocean ALL_GO_Ocean 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 NEP_MO_Ocean NEP_MY_Ocean NEP_MI_Ocean NEP_GO_Ocean 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 NAT_MO_Ocean NAT_MY_Ocean NAT_MI_Ocean NAT_GO_Ocean 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 NIP_MO_Ocean NIP_MY_Ocean NIP_MI_Ocean NIP_GO_Ocean O1 NEP O2 NAT All Ocean O3 NIP
0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 SAT_MO_Ocean SAT_MY_Ocean SAT_MI_Ocean SAT_GO_Ocean 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 SEP_MO_Ocean SEP_MY_Ocean SEP_MI_Ocean SEP_GO_Ocean 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 SIP_MO_Ocean SIP_MY_Ocean SIP_MI_Ocean SIP_GO_Ocean 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 SOU_MO_Ocean SOU_MY_Ocean SOU_MI_Ocean SOU_GO_Ocean O5 SAT O6 SIP O4 SEP O7 SOU Ocean region O4 O7
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 ALL_MO_Land ALL_MY_Land ALL_MI_Land ALL_GO_Land 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 ASA_MO_Land ASA_MY_Land ASA_MI_Land ASA_GO_Land 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 NAM_MO_Land NAM_MY_Land NAM_MI_Land NAM_GO_Land 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 EUR_MO_Land EUR_MY_Land EUR_MI_Land EUR_GO_Land L1 NAM L2 EUR All Land L3 ASA Land region L1 L3
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 AUS_MO_Land AUS_MY_Land AUS_MI_Land AUS_GO_Land 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 SAF_MO_Land SAF_MY_Land SAF_MI_Land SAF_GO_Land 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 SAM_MO_Land SAM_MY_Land SAM_MI_Land SAM_GO_Land 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 NAF_MO_Land NAF_MY_Land NAF_MI_Land NAF_GO_Land L5 SAM L6 SAF L4 NAF L7 AUS Land region L4 L7
Q: How many models will participate? How should we design regional/global analysis? How do we define regions? According to different economic/emission controlling regions According to different aerosol type regimes Data availability? E.g., GEBA/BSRN