Renewables Heymi Bahar Madrid, 13 December 2018 IEA OECD/IEA 2018

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1 Renewables 218 Heymi Bahar Madrid, 13 December 218 IEA

2 Context CO2 emissions to rise again in 218 Progress in energy efficiency is slowing Expensive energy is back Solar PV capacity rose faster than any other fuel in 217 driven by China; offshore wind installations broke a record with auction prices showing significant cost reduction potential Global l electricity it demand d grew by over 3% in 217, a faster rate than overall energy demand but electricity only accounts for 2% of total final energy consumption The world energy system has a number of blind-spots that require policy attention to achieve a secure, sustainable and affordable energy system 2

3 Modern bioenergy: the overlooked giant of renewables Total final energy consumption from renewables, 217 Total final energy consumption from renewables by sector, 217 9% 31% 4% 6% Modern bioenergy Hydropower Wind 5% Solar PV Other renewables Electricity from renewables Electricity Heat Transport Mtoe Modern bioenergy is the only renewable source that can provide electricity, direct heat and transport fuels Two thirds of modern bioenergy heat is used in industry 3

4 Modern bioenergy set to lead renewables growth Mtoe Total energy consumption growth of renewables over Transport Electricity Buildings Industry Modern bioenergy Solar PV Wind Hydropower Total renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by almost 3% over , covering 4% of global energy demand growth 4

5 Renewables share of energy consumption increases by one-fifth 3% % Share of renewables in the electricity, heat and transport sectors 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Renewable electricity Renewable transport Renewable heat % of renewables in total energy consumption Electricity contributes two-thirds of renewables growth But electricity accounts for less than 2% of total final energy consumption 5

6 China becomes the largest RE consumer, Brazil has the highest share Renewables contribution to energy consumption by country in 217 and 223 Mtoe 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % European Union China United States Brazil India Modern bioenergy Hydropower Wind Solar PV Others % of renewables (right axis) China accounts for the largest absolute growth over the forecast period surpassing the EU, while renewable energy consumption in India increases by 5% 6

7 Competition accelerating cost reductions Fixed remuneration type of utility-scale projects GW Renewables 217, Renewables 218, Administratively set Competitively set Average auction price by project commissioning date USD/MWh Onshore wind price Offshore wind price Solar PV price Bioenergy price Around 6% of renewable capacity additions over driven by competitive remuneration schemes Announced contract prices need to be verified as project delivery schedules and final costs may differ 7

8 Renewables account for 7% of global capacity expansion 1 4 Capacity growth (GW) Renewable net capacity growth by country Accelerated case 1 2 Other Brazil Japan Africa and Middle East India European Union United States China In the accelerated case, renewable capacity could expand by 25% more reaching 1.3 TW, if governments address challenges concerning policy uncertainty, grid integration and affordable financing 8

9 Solar PV expansion in electricity larger than all renewables combined 8 GW Renewable electricity capacity growth by technology Wind Utility scale PV Distributed PV Hydropower Bioenergy Other renewables Accelerated case Distributed generation capacity growth makes the difference in solar PV s leadership Cumulative PV capacity could reach 1.1 TW and wind over.9 TW by 223 under the accelerated case 9

10 Policies for remuneration to play a key role for distributed generation Distributed PV capacity growth by policy type for remuneration of excess generation China Asia Pacific North America 22% 3% Europe 3% 51% Latin America 21% MENA Capacity growth over (GW) All generation with fixed tariff Retail tariff Wholesale price Value based tariff No remuneration Utilities revenue losses due to self-consumption to almost quadruple (USD 12 bln) by 223 but accounting for less than.3% of total retail bill collection revenues 1

11 A more optimistic capacity forecast for the EU 3 EU annual net renewable capacity additions GW Key policy actions Longer-term visibility of auction volumes and capacity targets 2 Better auction design reflecting permitting and grid connection challenges Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV utility Solar PV distributed Other Renewables Accelerated Case Provide roadmap for onshore wind repowering Faster grid build-out in Northern Europe Improve social acceptance of onshore wind Provide clarity on distributed PV incentives and self-consumption auctions Over half of the EU s expansion in Germany, France and the UK but growth could be 3% higher if additional auctions and more attractive economics for corporate PPAs and distributed PV occur 11

12 Asia and Latin America dominate biofuel production growth Biofuel production growth Renewables consumption in transport in 223 Billion L 12 Road biofuels 1 8 Aviation biofuels 6 Maritime biofuels 4 Rail electricity 2 Road electricity Other electricity 2 Brazil United EU China India ASEAN States Ethanol Biodiesel Biofuels production grows by 16%; EVs electricity consumption triples, with renewables providing 3% of demand from electrified transport by

13 Biofuels open new avenues for more sustainable aviation Cost premium of commercial aviation biofuels (15% blend) per passenger from London 35 Cost per passenger (USD) Sydney Tokyo Delhi New York Berlin Policies remain key to bridge the cost gap between aviation biofuels and fossil jet fuels The most efficient aircraft could reduce fuel costs by around 15% 13

14 Waste: a key resource for greener cement production Bioenergy and waste consumption in the cement industry by country 1 Mtoe 3% 8 25% 6 2% 15% 4 1% 2 5% % China India EU United States Bioenergy and waste consumption in 217 % of bioenergy and waste in 217 (right axis) Bioenergy and waste 223 potential Cement production by country, 217 RoW 3% United States 2% EU 5% India 6% China 57% The share of bioenergy and waste in the cement industry could be doubled if the robust waste management frameworks present in Europe were replicated in large producing countries 14

15 Accelerated deployment is possible with right policies Mtoe Renewables upside potential over Electricity it sector accelerated case Bioenergy scale up potential ti lfor selected sectors Renewables excl. bioenergy Bioenergy for power Road transport biofuels Bioenergy in cement Sugar and ethanol electricity Aviation biofuels Policies could accelerate renewable electricity growth by 25%; bioenergy could accelerate RE consumption across all sectors with an enhanced use of available waste resources 15

16 Conclusions Even with ongoing cost reductions, government policy remains crucial to attract investment in renewables, ensure appropriate market design and reliable & cost-effective system integration Modern bioenergy will continue to lead renewables growth in the next five years and its untapped potential remains huge particularly in China, India, Brazil and the EU Further accelerating the use of modern bioenergy hinges on policies & incentives to foster innovation and on rigorous sustainability frameworks Greater use of solar, wind, bioenergy & other renewables together with energy efficiency &other clean energy technologies is needed in all sectors for emissions to peak rapidly then decline - Electrification of end-use sectors - Better alignment of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies - Enhanced direct renewable heat uses - Stronger renewables penetration in industry, including through hydrogen-based fuels & feedstocks 16

17 Renewable consumption expands by one-fifth led by wind and bioenergy EU renewable energy consumption by sector in 217 and 223 EU total final energy consumption in 217 and Mtoe 45% % 12 3% 35% % % 2% 15% 5,3% 5,4% 4 4 5% Electricity Heat Transport Modern bioenergy Hydropower Wind Solar PV Others % of renewables (right axis) 5% Mtoe Total energy consumption Electricity Heat Transport Heat drives renewable penetration growth followed by electricity; transport share remains flat EU energy demand is expected to decline 3% as energy efficiency policies are successfully implemented 17

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