GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2007

Átírás

1 HUNGARIAN CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2007 (Preliminary estimation) Budapest, September 2008

2 Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2008 ISBN Responsible editors: Csak Ligeti head of department Dr. Pal Pozsonyi head of department Internet: (36-1) (telephone), (36-1) (fax)

3 Contents Summary 5 Tables 1. Volume indices of gross domestic product and per capita gross domestic product, Gross value added by sectors, Gross output by industries, Gross value added by industries, Gross domestic product by final use, Non-financial accounts for general government sector, Gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI) of Hungary, Methodological notes.. 21 Explanations of Symbols.. = Not available. = Break in series (limited comparability). x = Not applicable. Empty space = Block of not applicable items. 0 = Less than half of unit. 3

4 4

5 Summary In 2007, Hungary s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was HUF billion at current prices. At prices of the previous year, this means a 1.1 percent growth in 2007 compared to the previous year. In per capita terms, the gross domestic product was HUF 2 million 528 thousand. It corresponds to at purchasing power parity, that is 61 percent of the average of the EU-25 and 63 percent of the average of the EU-27. The Gross National Income (GNI) in 2007 was HUF billion at current prices, which equalled the year 2006 level in real terms. In 2007, the value added of the national economy grew by 1.0 percent at basic prices compared to the preceding year. The most rapid growth, 3.9 percent was observed in the non-financial corporations sector. Gross value added by financial corporations sector also rose rapidly than average, by 2.0 percent at constant prices. At the same time the performance of the rest of the sectors decreased (general government by 4.0, households by 2.7 and non-profit institutions serving households by 4.8 percent). The performance of branches producing goods (agriculture, industry, construction) rose by 0.9%. The expansion arose completely from the 6.4 percent increase of the value added by industry. This growth was based mainly on the manufacturing s value added rise, which was above other industries 7.0 percent. The remarkable growth in the performance of manufacturing can be assigned to its dynamically expanding export performance. In agriculture the gross value added fell by 23 percent, due to the decrease measured in output of crop production. In 2007, production of value added by construction fell by 7.7 percent. The performance fall was typical in every part of construction, but other building completion fell significantly (highways, roads). This was caused mainly by the significant decrease compared to previous periods - of the state orders. Value added of services rose by 1.1 percent. Significant growth rate was measured in transport, storage and communications (5.6 percent) mainly because of the increase measured in telecommunications. Gross value added of trade and repair of motor vehicles industries also rose more rapidly (3.6 percent) than average, in which wholesale enterprises played a significant role, while the growth rate of retail trade lagged behind that of the previous year in accordance with the decrease measured in household consumption. The growth rate was also higher than the average in real estate, renting and business activities (2.2 percent) and in hotels and restaurants (1.8 percent). The decrease of the services of the general government sector had a considerable effect on the performance of services. Within this the value added of the health care services decreased to the highest degree as a result of the health care system s transformation. The performance of public administration also decreased, while that of education stagnated. On the expenditure side of gross domestic product, the household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.7 percent. The domestic consumption declined by 0.6 percent. Social transfers in kind financed by general government decreased by 11.8 percent mainly because of the considerable falls of medical services, the subsidy of medicines and the compensation of gas prices. The government consumption declined by 2.2 percent. The actual final consumption decreased by 1.8 percent. The gross fixed capital formation rose slightly, by 1.5 percent. The growth is mainly due to investments realized in manufacturing (+19.2%) and real estate, renting and business activities industries (+3.2%). These two industries gave the half of the gross fixed capital formation. The 5

6 volume of investments declined mostly in the industries of construction (-35.9%), public administration, defence and compulsory social security (-19%) and the industry of electricity, gas, steam and water supply (-15.7%). The total domestic use decreased by 1.0 percent. The balance of external trade turnover shows a HUF billion surplus at current prices, while the terms of trade improved to a low extent. The growth of the external trade turnover slightly slowed down compared to previous years. The volume of exports rose by 15.9 percent, within this the exports of goods increased by 16.6 percent and services by 12.3 percent. Imports rose to a smaller degree, by 13.1 percent. Within this the imports of goods increased by 12.1 percent and services by 19.9 percent. GNI was HUF billion at current prices and in real terms it was identical to the preceding year s figure. The gross national income was calculated by adjusting the gross domestic product by the balance of income receivable from and payable to the rest of the world and the balance of subsidies receivable from the EU and taxes payable to the EU. GNI was 93.1 percent of GDP. The value of this variable was 94.2 percent in

7 TABLES

8 1. A bruttó hazai termék volumenváltozása és az egy főre jutó bruttó hazai termék, Volume indices of gross domestic product and per capita gross domestic product, Év Bruttó hazai termék volumenindexe GDP volume indices Az egy főre jutó bruttó hazai termék folyó áron Per capita GDP at current prices Year 1990=100,0 előző év=100,0 previous year=100.0 forint in HUF USD devizaárfolyamon at exchange rates euró a) euro a) vásárlóerőparitáson b) in purchasing power parities b) ,1 88, ,4 96, ,9 99, ,4 102, ,7 101, ,9 101, ,0 104, ,6 104, ,7 104, ,0 105, x x ,4 104, ,1 104, ,0 104, ,9 104, ,0 104, ,5 104, ,0 101, c) a) b) c) 1998-ig ECU, 1999-től euró. ECU until 1998, euro from Az Európai Összehasonlítási Program (ECP) keretében számított értékek. Results of Eurostat's European Comparison Program. EUROSTAT által becsült adat. Data estimated by EUROSTAT. 8

9 2. A bruttó hozzáadott érték szektoronként, * Gross value added by sectors, * Folyó áron At current prices Volumenindex előző év=100,0 Kód Szektorok millió Ft megoszlás, % Volume indices Sectors Code million HUF structure, % previous year= S.11 Vállalatok ,0 107,4 Non-financial corporations S.11 S.12 Pénzügyi vállalatok ,5 106,9 Financial corporations S.12 S.13 Kormányzat (intézményei) ,2 100,7 General government S.13 S.14 Háztartások ,7 98,7 Households S.14 S.15 Háztartásokat segítő nonprofit intézmények ,9 99,3 NPISHs S.15 BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (alapáron) ,4 104,3 (at basic prices) Termékadók és -támogatások egyenlege ,6 x Taxes less subsidies on products BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (piaci beszerzési áron) ,0 104,1 (at purchasers' prices) 2007 S.11 Vállalatok ,7 103,9 Non-financial corporations S.11 S.12 Pénzügyi vállalatok ,5 102,0 Financial corporations S.12 S.13 Kormányzat (intézményei) ,5 96,0 General government S.13 S.14 Háztartások ,1 97,3 Households S.14 S.15 Háztartásokat segítő nonprofit intézmények ,9 95,2 NPISHs S.15 BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (alapáron) ,7 101,0 (at basic prices) Termékadók és -támogatások egyenlege ,3 x Taxes less subsidies on products BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (piaci beszerzési áron) ,0 101,1 (at purchasers' prices) *A szeptember 30-án bevezetett módszertani változások leírása megtalálható kiadványunk Módszertani megjegyzések részében, a részletes adatok pedig a KSH Tájékoztatási Adatbázisában. * The description of the methodological changes introduced on September 30th 2008 can be found in this publication s Methodological notes. The detailed data are available in HCSO s Dissemination Database. 9

10 3. A bruttó kibocsátás ágazatonként, * Ágazati kód Nemzetgazdasági ág folyó áron 2006 at current prices millió Ft megoszlás, % million HUF structure, % volumenindex volume indices 2005=100,0 A+B Mezőgazdaság, vad- és erdőgazdálkodás, halászat ,0 97,7 C+D+E Ipar ,5 108,4 C Bányászat ,3 125,4 D Feldolgozóipar ,5 109,1 E Villamosenergia-, gáz-, gőz-, vízellátás ,7 100,5 F Építőipar ,2 101,5 G Kereskedelem, javítás ,9 104,8 H Szálláshely-szolgáltatás és vendéglátás ,6 102,8 I Szállítás, raktározás, posta és távközlés ,3 106,9 J Pénzügyi tevékenység ,5 102,8 K Ingatlanügyletek, gazdasági szolgáltatás ,9 105,6 L+M+N Közigazgatás, oktatás, egészségügy ,6 103,7 L Közigazgatás,védelem, kötelező társadalombiztosítás ,9 107,6 M Oktatás ,9 100,4 N Egészségügyi, szociális ellátás ,9 101,0 O Egyéb közösségi, személyi szolgáltatás ,5 99,7 A...O BRUTTÓ KIBOCSÁTÁS ÖSSZESEN (alapáron) ,0 105,7 Termékadók és -támogatások egyenlege x x BRUTTÓ KIBOCSÁTÁS (piaci beszerzési áron) x 105,5 *A szeptember 30-án bevezetett módszertani változások leírása megtalálható kiadványunk Módszertani megjegyzések részében, a részletes adatok pedig a KSH Tájékoztatási Adatbázisában. 10

11 Gross output by industries, * folyó áron 2007 at current prices millió Ft megoszlás, % million HUF structure, % volumenindex volume indices 2006=100,0 Industries NACE Code ,0 92,2 Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing A+B ,6 105,8 Mining, manufacturing, electricity C+D+E ,3 93,2 Mining and quarrying C ,4 106,3 Manufacturing D ,0 101,5 Electricity, gas, steam and water supply E ,9 94,1 Construction F ,9 101,1 Wholesale and retail trade; repair G ,6 100,7 Hotels and restaurants H ,6 106,2 Transport, storage and communications I ,6 103,1 Financial intermediation J ,1 103,0 Real estate, business activities K ,1 95,8 Public administration, education, health L+M+N Public administration and defence, L ,7 96,0 compulsory social security ,6 97,9 Education M ,7 93,4 Health and social work N ,5 100,1 Other community, personal service activities O ,0 102,5 GROSS OUTPUT TOTAL (at basic prices) A...O x x Taxes less subsidies on products x 102,4 GROSS OUTPUT (at purchasers' prices) * The description of the methodological changes introduced on September 30th 2008 can be found in this publication s Methodological notes. The detailed data are in HCSO s Dissemination Database. 11

12 4. A bruttó hozzáadott érték ágazatonként, * Ágazati kód Nemzetgazdasági ág folyó áron 2006 at current prices millió Ft megoszlás, % million HUF structure, % volumenindex volume indices 2005=100,0 A+B Mezőgazdaság, vad- és erdőgazdálkodás, halászat ,1 94,2 C+D+E Ipar ,3 105,5 C Bányászat ,2 112,6 D Feldolgozóipar ,5 106,3 E Villamosenergia-, gáz-, gőz-, vízellátás ,6 99,1 F Építőipar ,8 101,7 G Kereskedelem, javítás ,5 109,1 H Szálláshely-szolgáltatás és vendéglátás ,6 101,4 I Szállítás, raktározás, posta és távközlés ,7 105,8 J Pénzügyi tevékenység ,5 105,7 K Ingatlanügyletek, gazdasági szolgáltatás ,8 106,5 L+M+N Közigazgatás, oktatás, egészségügy ,5 101,0 L Közigazgatás,védelem, kötelező társadalombiztosítás ,6 100,6 M Oktatás ,5 100,5 N Egészségügyi, szociális ellátás ,4 102,2 O Egyéb közösségi, személyi szolgáltatás ,3 101,5 BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK (alapáron) ,0 104,3 Termékadók és -támogatások egyenlege x x BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK (piaci beszerzési áron) x 104,1 *A szeptember 30-án bevezetett módszertani változások leírása megtalálható kiadványunk Módszertani megjegyzések részében, a részletes adatok pedig a KSH Tájékoztatási Adatbázisában. 12

13 Gross value added by industries, * folyó áron 2007 at current prices millió Ft megoszlás, % million HUF structure, % volumenindex volume indices 2006=100,0 Industries NACE Code ,0 77,4 Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing A+B ,0 106,4 Mining, manufacturing, electricity C+D+E ,2 89,4 Mining and quarrying C ,9 107,0 Manufacturing D ,9 102,3 Electricity, gas, steam and water supply E ,6 92,3 Construction F ,0 103,6 Wholesale and retail trade; repair G ,6 101,8 Hotels and restaurants H ,2 105,6 Transport, storage and communications I ,6 101,2 Financial intermediation J ,0 102,2 Real estate, business activities K ,6 96,6 Public administration, education, health L+M+N Public administration and defence, L ,4 96,7 compulsory social security ,0 100,4 Education M ,2 91,6 Health and social work N ,4 100,6 Other community, personal service activities O ,0 101,0 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ( at basic prices ) x x Taxes less subsidies on products GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT x 101,1 ( at purchasers' prices ) * The description of the methodological changes introduced on September 30th 2008 can be found in this publication s Methodological notes. The detailed data are in HCSO s Dissemination Database. 13

14 5. A bruttó hazai termék felhasználása, * 2005 Megnevezés folyó áron at current prices volumenindex 2004=100,0 millió Ft megoszlás, % volume indices million HUF structure, % 2004=100,0 Háztartások fogyasztási kiadásai (1) ,5 103,4 Kormányzat fogyasztási kiadásai (2) ,5 102,5 Háztartásokat segítő nonprofit intézmények fogyasztási kiadásai (3) ,6 104,8 Fogyasztási kiadás összesen (4=1+2+3) ,7 103,1 Természetbeni társadalmi juttatás (5) ,3 104,6 ebből: kormányzattól (6) ,7 104,5 háztartásokat segítő nonprofit intézményektől (7=3) ,6 104,8 Háztartások fogyasztása (8=1+6+7) ,8 103,6 Közösségi fogyasztás (9=2 6) ,9 99,9 Összes végső fogyasztás (10=4) ,7 103,1 Bruttó állóeszköz-felhalmozás (11) ,5 108,5 Készletváltozás (12) ,7 x Egyéb nem specifikált felhasználás (13) ,0 x Bruttó felhalmozás összesen (14= ) ,2 96,4 Belföldi felhasználás (15=4+14) ,8 101,4 Export (16) ,0 111,3 Import (17) ,8 107,0 Külkereskedelmi egyenleg (18=16 17) ,8 x BRUTTÓ HAZAI TERMÉK ÖSSZESEN (19=15+18) ,0 104,0 *A szeptember 30-án bevezetett módszertani változások leírása megtalálható kiadványunk Módszertani megjegyzések részében, a részletes adatok pedig a KSH Tájékoztatási Adatbázisában. 14

15 Gross domestic product by final use, * folyó áron volumenindex folyó áron volumenindex Category at current prices 2005=100,0 at current prices 2006=100,0 millió Ft megoszlás, %volume indices millió Ft megoszlás, % volume indices million HUF structure, % 2005=100,0 million HUF structure, % 2006=100, ,1 101, ,2 100,7 Household final consumption expenditure(1) ,8 104, ,1 92,5 Government final consumption expenditure (2) ,5 94, ,5 97,3 Final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households (3) ,4 102, ,8 98,2 Final consumption expenditure, total (4=1+2+3) ,1 102, ,9 89,2 Social transfers in kind (5) ,6 103, ,4 88,2 Of which: from government (6) ,5 94, ,5 97,3 non-profit institutions serving households (7=3) ,2 101, ,1 98,2 Actual final consumption of households (8=1+6+7) ,2 105, ,7 97,8 Actual final consumption of government (9=2-6) ,4 102, ,8 98,2 Actual final consumption, total (10=4) ,6 93, ,0 101,5 Gross fixed capital formation (11) ,5 x ,3 x Changes in inventories(12) ,8 x ,4 x Statistical discrepancy(13) ,3 99, ,7 101,6 Gross capital formation, total (14= ) ,7 101, ,5 99,0 Domestic use, total (15=4+14) ,1 118, ,3 115,9 Exports (16) ,8 114, ,7 113,1 Imports (17) ,7 x ,5 x External balance of goods and services (18=16-17) ,0 104, ,0 101,1 GDP total (19=15+18) * The description of the methodological changes introduced on September 30th 2008 can be found in this publication s Methodological notes. The detailed data are in HCSO s Dissemination Database. 15

16 6. A kormányzat nem-pénzügyi számlái, (millió Ft) ESA kód Megnevezés Kormányzati szektor I. Termelési számla P.1 Kibocsátás P.11 Piaci kibocsátás P.12 Saját végső felhasználási célú kibocsátás P.13 Egyéb nem piaci kibocsátás P.131 Vásárolt egyéb nem piaci kibocsátás P.132 Egyéb nem piaci kibocsátás, egyéb P.2 Folyó termelőfelhasználás B.1g Hozzáadott érték (bruttó) (P.1-P.2) K.1 Értékcsökkenés B.1n Hozzáadott érték (nettó) (B.1g-K.1) II. Jövedelemelosztási és felhasználási számlák II.1 Jövedelmek elsődleges elosztása számla II.1.1 Jövedelmek keletkezése számla B.1n Hozzáadott érték (nettó) D.1 Munkavállalói jövedelem D.11 Bérek és keresetek D.12 Munkaadók tb-hozzájárulásai D.121 Munkaadók tényleges tb-hozzájárulásai D.122 Munkaadók imputált tb-hozzájárulásai D.39 Egyéb termelési adók (fizetett) 0 0 D.29 és (kapott) támogatások egyenlege B.2 Működési eredmény (B.1n D.1+D.39 D.29) II.1.2 Elsődleges jövedelmek elosztása számla B.2 Működési eredmény D.2 Termelési és importadók D.21 Termékadók D.29 Egyéb termelési adók D.3 Támogatások D.31 Terméktámogatások D.39 Egyéb termelési támogatások D.4 Tulajdonosi jövedelmek egyenlege D.41 Kamatok (kapott) Kamatok (fizetett) D.421 Vállalatok jövedelméből kapott osztalék D.45 Bérleti díjként kapott tulajdonosi jövedelem B.5 Elsődleges jövedelmek egyenlege (B.2+D.2 D.3+D.4) II.2 Jövedelmek másodlagos elosztása számla B.5 Elsődleges jövedelmek egyenlege D.5 Folyó jövedelem-, vagyonadók stb D.51 Jövedelemadók D.59 Egyéb folyó adók D.61 TB-hozzájárulások (kapott) D.611 Tényleges tb-hozzájárulások D.6111 Munkaadók tényleges tb-hozzájárulása D.6112 Munkavállalók tb-hozzájárulásai D.6113 Önállók és foglalkozásban nem állók tb-hozzájárulásai D.612 Imputált tb-hozzájárulások D.62 Pénzbeni társadalmi juttatások D.621 Kötelező tb-pénzbeni juttatásai D.623 Munkavállalóknak nyújtott nem alapszerű tb-juttatások D.624 TB-jellegű pénzbeni juttatások D.7 Egyéb folyó transzferek egyenlege Egyéb folyó transzferek (kapott) Egyéb folyó transzferek (fizetett) B.6 Rendelkezésre álló jövedelem (B.5+D.5+D.61 D.62+D.7) 16

17 6. Non-financial accounts for general government, (million HUF ) General government Item I. Production account Output Market output Output for own final use Other non-market output Payments for other non-market output Other non-market output, other Intermediate consumption Value added (gross) (P.1-P.2) Consumption of fixed capital Value added (net) (B.1g-K.1) II. Distribution and use of income accounts II.1 Primary distribution of income account II.1.1 Generation of income account Value added (net) Compensation of employees Wages and salaries Employers' social contributions Actual Imputed 0 0 Other subsidies (received) taxes (paid) on production Operating surplus (B.1n D.1+D.39 D.29) II.1.2 Allocation of primary income account Operating surplus Taxes on production and imports Taxes on products Other taxes on production Subsidies Subsidies on products Other subsidies on production Balance of property incomes Interest, revenue Interest, paid Dividends from corporations Rents Balance of primary incomes (B.2n+D.2 D.3+D.4) II.2 Secondary distribution of income account Balance of primary incomes Current taxes on income, wealth, etc Taxes on income Other current taxes Social contributions (received) Actual social contributions Employers' actual social contributions Employees' actual social contributions Social contributions by self- and non-employed persons Imputed social contributions Social benefits, other than social transfers in kind Social security benefits in cash Unfunded employee social benefits Social assistance benefits in cash Balance of other current transfers Other current transfer (received) Other current transfer (paid) Disposable income (B.5+D.5+D.61 D.62+D.7) 17

18 6. A kormányzat nem-pénzügyi számlái (millió Ft) ESA kód Megnevezés Kormányzati szektor II.3 Természetbeni jövedelmek újraelosztása számla B.6 Rendelkezésre álló jövedelem D.63 Természetbeni juttatások D.631 Természetbeni társadalmi transzferek D.6312 Kötelező tb-egyéb természetbeni juttatásai D.6313 Társadalombiztosítás jellegű természetbeni juttatások D.632 Egyéni felhasználásra szolgáló nem piaci termékek és szolgáltatások B.7 Korrigált rendelkezésre álló jövedelem (B.6 D.63) II.4 Jövedelem felhasználása számla II.4.1 Rendelkezésre álló jövedelem felhasználása számla B.6 Rendelkezésre álló jövedelem P.3 Végső fogyasztási kiadás P.31 Egyéni fogyasztási kiadás P.32 Közösségi fogyasztási kiadás B.8 Megtakarítás (B.6 P.3) II.4.2 Korrigált rendelkezésre álló jövedelem felhasználása számla B.7 Korrigált rendelkezésre álló jövedelem P.4 Végső fogyasztás P.42 Közösségi fogyasztás B.8 Megtakarítás (B.7 P.4) III. Felhalmozási számlák III.1 Tőkeszámla III.1.1 A nettó vagyon változása megtakarítás és tőketranszferek miatt számla B.8 Megtakarítás D.9 Tőketranszferek egyenlege Tőketranszferek (kapott) D.91 Tőkeadók D.92 Beruházási támogatások D.99 Egyéb tőketranszferek Tőketranszferek (fizetett) D.92 Beruházási támogatások D.99 Egyéb tőketranszferek B.10.1 A nettó vagyon változása megtakarítás és tőketranszferek miatt (B.8+D.9) III.1.2 Nem pénzügyi eszközök beszerzése száma B.10.1 A nettó vagyon változása megtakarítás és tőketranszferek miatt P.51 Bruttó állóeszköz-felhalmozás P.52 Készletváltozás K.1 Értékcsökkenés K.2 Nem termelt nem pénzügyi eszközök beszerzésének és eladásának egyenlege B.9 Nettó hitelnyújtás (+)/ hitelfelvétel (-) (B.10.1 P.51 P.52+K.1 K.2) TE Összes kiadás TR Összes bevétel EDP_D.41 Kamat (fizetett) beleértve a swap-tranzakció kat és a határidős kamatláb-megállapodásokat EDP_B.9 Nettó hitelnyújtás (+)/Nettó hitelfelvétel (-) a túlzott hiány eljárás (EDP) keretében B.1*g Bruttó hazai termék (GDP) Nettó hitelnyújtás (+)/Nettó hitelfelvétel (-) -6,4% -7,8% az EDP keretében a GDP %-ában 18

19 6. Non-financial accounts for general government (million HUF ) General government Item II.3 Redistribution of income in kind account Disposable income Social transfer in kind Social benefit in kind Other social security benefits in kind Social assistance benefits in kind Transfers of individual non-market goods and services Adjusted disposable income (B.6 D.63) II.4 Use of income account II.4.1 Use of disposable income account Disposable income Final consumption expenditure Individual consumption expenditure Collective consumption expenditure Saving (B.6 P.3) II.4.2 Use of adjusted disposable income account Adjusted disposable income Actual final consumption Actual collective consumption Saving (B.7 P.4) III. Accumulation accounts III.1 Capital account III.1.1 Change in net worth due to saving and capital transfers account Saving Balance of capital transfers, Capital transfer (received) Capital taxes Investment grants Other capital transfers Capital transfer (paid) Investment grants Other capital transfers Changes in net worth due to saving and capital transfers (B.8+D.9) III.1.2 Acquisition of non-financial assets account Changes in net worth due to savings and capital transfers Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories Consumption of fixed capital Acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non financial assets Net lending (+)/ net borrowing ( ) (B.10.1 P.51 P.52+K.1 K.2) Total expenditure Total revenue Interest (paid) including swaps and FRAs Net lending (+)/Net borrowing (-) under the EDP Gross domestic product -9,3% -5,0% Net lending (+)/Net borrowing (-) under the EDP as % of GDP 19

20 7. Magyarország bruttó hazai terméke (GDP) és bruttó nemzeti jövedelme (GNI), Gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI) of Hungary, Év Bruttó hazai Munkajövedelmek Tulajdonosi jövedelem Property income EU-nak EU-tól Bruttó GNI termék Compensation of employees fizetett kapott nemzeti növekedési külföldről külföldnek egyenleg külföldről külföldnek egyenleg ebből: of which: adó támogatás jövedelem üteme kapott fizetendő kapott fizetett visszaforgatott jövedelem reinvested earnings on direct foreign investment előző év = 100,0 külföldről külföldnek egyenleg járó fizetendő 20 Year GDP received paid to the net received paid to the net receivable payable net Taxes Subsidies GNI The volume from the rest of the from the rest of the from the to the to the EU from indices rest of the world rest of the world rest of the rest of the the EU of GNI world world world world previous folyó áron, millió Ft at current prices, million HUF year = 100, , , , , , x , , , , , , ,0

21 Methodological notes At the time of the preliminary national accounts estimations for 2007, data sources necessary for the calculations are not fully complete. Next estimates of 2007 on the basis of comprehensive information will be published in May The system of national accounts is a system of macroeconomic statistical accounts summarising the country s economic activities by comparing the production of goods with their use. The methodology of HCSO follows the articles of European System of Accounts (ESA 95) and its amendments based on the integrated system prepared by the agency of the United Nations, Eurostat, IMF, OECD and the World Bank (System of National Accounts, SNA 93). Accordingly, it is harmonized with the methodology used in EU member countries. Glossary on terms Gross output consists of goods and services that are produced within an institutional unit to be purchased by other institutional units and of those that are produced for own final use. It is valued at basic prices in the national accounts. Intermediate consumption consists of the value of goods and services consumed as inputs in the process of production, excluding the consumption of fixed capital. These inputs are purchased from other units. Intermediate consumption is valued at market prices. Gross domestic product is a concept of value added. It is the sum of gross value added of all resident producers (institutional sectors or industries) measured at basic prices, plus the balance of taxes and subsidies on products, which cannot be divided among the industries or sectors. So GDP is an aggregate value at market prices. GDP can be defined by three approaches: by production approach it is: + the sum of gross value added at basic prices + taxes on products subsidies on products by expenditure approach it is: + final consumption expenditure of households + final consumption expenditure of government + final consumption expenditure of non-profit institutions serving households + gross fixed capital formation + changes in inventories + exports imports 21

22 by income approach it is: 1 + wages and salaries + employers social contributions other subsidies on production + other taxes on production + gross operating surplus and mixed income + taxes on products subsidies on products Taxes less subsidies on products is the difference between taxes and subsidies connected with the acquisition, sale and any other transfers of goods and services (i.e. customs duties, consumption tax, value added tax, producer price subsidy and consumer price subsidy). Household consumption comprises the value of goods and services meeting the personal consumption requirements of households resident in Hungary. The sources of financing are household consumption expenditure, social transfers from the general government and social transfers in kind from non-profit institutions serving households. Collective consumption is a part of total final consumption which is intended to satisfy collective needs or needs of large sections of the community. This type of consumption should be financed exclusively by the general government sector due to the definition of the concept. Final consumption is the value of goods and services consumed by households and the community independently of the source of financing. Gross fixed capital formation: includes the value of purchased or own-produced tangible fixed assets and intangible fixed assets, the increase of used assets in value terms, the value of ownaccount production of fixed assets, capital transfer in kind from abroad and rental paid for financial leasing. Gross fixed capital formation is not reduced by the consumption of fixed capital (annual depreciation of the capital stock). Consumption of fixed capital: represents the amount of fixed assets used up during the considered period as a result of normal wear and tear and foreseeable obsolescence. Gross capital formation is the sum of gross fixed capital formation and change in inventories. Change in inventories: the value of change in the own-produced and purchased inventories of each sector, which occurs during the accounting period. External trade turnover is the export and import turnover of goods and services. Turnover of goods comprises general turnover based on foreign trade statistics (including the turnover between industrial customs free zones and the rest of the world), repair charges, and inward and outward processing. The turnover of services includes tourism as well as the balance of re-exports and reimports. The external trade balance is the balance of export and import turnover of goods and services of the national economy. Prices used. The basic price is the amount receivable by the producer from the purchaser for a unit of a good or service produced as output minus any tax payable and plus any subsidy receivable on that unit as a consequence of its production or sale. Purchasers price is the amount actually paid by the purchaser, excluding any deductible VAT or similar deductible taxes. (It means it excludes 1 Data in this publication were estimated by two approaches (production and use). 22

23 taxes on purchased goods and services that are acquired for intermediate consumption and subsidies on products.) Gross national income (GNI) is equal to GDP less primary income payable to non-resident units plus primary income receivable from non-resident units and the balance of subsidies receivable from the EU and taxes payable to the EU. While GDP is a concept of value added, GNI is a concept of income (primary income). GNI = + gross domestic product (GDP) + primary income receivable from non-resident economic units primary income payable to non-resident economic units taxes payable to the EU + subsidies receivable from the EU Primary incomes are incomes that accrue to institutional units as a consequence of their involvement in the process of production or of their ownership of assets that may be needed for purposes of production (e.g. compensation of employees, dividends on invested capital, interest, etc.). Non-financial corporations sector covers all the corporations with and without legal entity, except sole proprietors. It includes those non-profit institutions, too, whose principal activity is mainly the production of market goods or non-financial services and so their costs are financed from their sales receipts. Financial corporations sector consists of all corporations principally engaged in financial intermediation. i.e. the National Bank of Hungary, commercial banks, savings co-operatives, credit co-operatives, specialized credit institutions, financial enterprises dealing with financial leasing, other credit-granting corporations, private pension funds, voluntary mutual pension funds, health and income-replacement funds, insurance companies, insurance unions, investment fund managers, security dealers etc. General government sector covers the units mainly financed by the budgets of the central government and local governments, extra-budgetary funds and social security funds. It also includes those non-profit institutions which are mainly financed by the state budget and the Hungarian Privatization and State Holding Company (ÁPV Rt), as well. Household sector covers the activities of households both as consumers and, where appropriate, as producers. The latter category includes sole proprietors, production of households for their own final use and housing services by owner-occupied dwellings. Non-profit institutions serving households sector includes those non-profit institutions that are not controlled directly by the government and are mainly financed by fees and other contributions obtained mostly from private resources. Constant price estimations are calculated at the prices of previous years. 23

24 Methodological changes introduced during the calculation on second estimation data of year 2007 I. Corrections which modified both GDP and GNI: A/ Modification of the value-limit of small tools The modification of the methodology was asked by Eurostat in the Mission Report on GNI information visit to Hungary Action Point (A). The aim of the method is to raise the value-limit of small tools, to be in line with the 500-Euro value-limit of ESA95. In Hungarian accounting the value limit used is only HUF 100 thousand. The total value of small tools can be written off in the year of its purchase. It is accounted as cost of production. The expert estimation was based on data of the depreciation of small tools (tangible fixed assets, rights, intellectual property). These data were obtained from administrative data sources. On the production side the correction was made on four-digit-level industries, and in the case of GFCF on two-digit level, by groups of assets. With the amount of the difference between the original and the new values, we raised the amount of intermediate consumption, and in parallel lowered the GFCF on the use side. The difference between the old and the new data lines lowers the level of GDP as it is consistently accounted on both sides. The modification does not change the original data of investment statistics, but it is one element of a bridge between investment statistics and GFCF. Effect of the value-limit change of small tools on GDP (at current prices, billion HUF) Total B/ Adjustment of real estate funds in sub-sector S.123 Due to the lack of information, sub-sector S.123 did not contain data of real estate funds before The accounting of these funds became possible as a result of the cooperation between the HCSO and the National Bank of Hungary concerning the harmonisation of financial and nonfinancial accounts. The NBH made estimates regarding rents collected by real estate funds on the basis of information from their balance sheets and a calculated average yield. We increased the output of sub-sector S.123 by this estimated amount. Considering that the first real estate funds were established in 2001, we made backward calculations till

25 Impact of the new adjustment of real estate funds on GDP (at current prices, billion HUF) Total C/ Non-refunded expenditure on EU intervention Intervention on inventories was accounted in government expenditure in 2007 but it covers costs for three years: The expenditure was split according to the distribution of all incurred expenditure. Effect of non-refunded expenditure on EU intervention on GDP (at current prices, billion HUF) Total II. Corrections which modified GNI: A/ Interest matrix Until 2007 interest figures of institutional sectors in national accounts were defined on nonharmonised data sources, so there was no adequate consistency between the figures ensured. The National Bank of Hungary is the institution where the stocks of different financial instruments and accrued interests split by sectors and sub-sectors are available on quarterly basis. The National Bank of Hungary compiled a matrix of interest flows between institutional sectors. The matrix contains interest flows among resident sectors and the rest of the world, and the consistency with the basic FISIM input is ensured. Effect of the change of new interest matrix on GNI (at current prices, billion HUF) Total

26 B/ Corrections in the compensation of employees The main data source for the GDP/GNI transition items until the end of 2007 was the Balance of Payments statistics (BOP) compiled by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH). In this new system of BOP, data on gross compensation of employees (CoE) including income taxes and social contributions, paid abroad and received from abroad are provided by the HCSO. The estimation of CoE paid abroad was based on the personal income tax records of resident non- Hungarian citizens employed in Hungary. Among the citizens of foreign countries those were regarded as non-residents who declared their personal income tax only in one single year. Persons travelling from neighbouring countries on a daily basis, and temporary workers from Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine, Croatia and Serbia were also regarded as non-residents, since they remain residents in their country according to their permanent place of residence. On the basis of the tax data of legal workers on wages and salaries, the income of non-registered employees was estimated. According to expert judgements, the total number of employees working abroad is twice as much as the number of work permits issued. The estimated number of non-registered employees was obtained by deducting from this amount the number of employees who declared their personal income tax. Their salaries were estimated by using the salaries data of legally employed workers. The above estimation was supplemented by the estimated income from illegal activities (production and distribution of drugs, and sexual services) of foreign citizens. Data on the number of Hungarians working abroad available from the national balance sheet of labour compiled by HCSO and the study of the Office for European Affairs were used for the estimation of CoE received from abroad. Labour statistics provide information on workers abroad by countries and industries. To this information Eurostat data on average monthly earnings by countries were added. For the five most important countries employing Hungarian residents (Austria, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States) detailed calculations were made. Data on other countries were estimated by using the average of these five countries. Our assumption is that Hungarians working abroad earn less than the average, around 75% of the employees of the country in question. It was considered in the estimation. The study of the Office for European Affairs mentions that the number of Hungarian employees working abroad is much higher (around 40% more) than the data available from official sources. Hence the number of employees recorded by official statistics was regarded as the number of temporary workers (employed during less than one year) only. The rest of this population was regarded as permanent employees (employed during more than one year), i.e. residents abroad. 26

27 Effect of the change in compensation of employees on GNI Year Published in last GNI Questionnaire, in 2007 Published in recent GNI Questionnaire, in 2008 at current prices, million HUF million HUF Difference in percentage of previous GNI data C/ Modification of the income on FDI equity According to its publication and revision policy, the NBH revised the data on dividends and reinvested earnings previously published for years We replaced the transition figures with these new ones. Effect of the change in the income on FDI equity on GNI (at current prices, billion HUF) Total III. Corrections which modified only the structure of GDP: A/ Corrections in gross fixed capital formation There were three changes in GFCF data. First, corrections were made because of data collection errors in the corporate sector in 2004, 2005 and The second adjustment was made due to the changes of agricultural investment data in agricultural accounts. The agricultural investment data are estimated from a new data source, based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture instead of the investment survey of HCSO. 27

28 Further correction was made because of small tools. (See above in point I/A) Effect of the change of corrections on GFCF (at current prices, billion HUF) Total B/ Revision of external trade data To external trade figures two adjustments were made. First, there were some data corrections in data of both goods and services during the normal revision processes. The second adjustment, concerning the activities of foreign traders without physical presence, decreased the valuation differences between national accounts and foreign trade statistics. These special entities have Hungarian VAT (Value Added Tax) numbers, they submit VAT tax returns to the Hungarian tax authority but they do not have establishments or employees in Hungary. According to the regulation of the EU their data are collected in external trade statistics and their activities are accounted as a part of the Hungarian external trade. However, there is no exact international recommendation for the treatment of this special trade in the national accounts and balance of payments. In Hungarian experts opinion these entities do not belong to the Hungarian economy from the national accounts and balance of payments point of view, therefore their economic performance should be treated differently from the rules on external trade statistics. This means that their price gap originating from their external trade activities has to be taken out of account entirely in the national accounts and balance of payments. In the case of exports the prices of special traders must be reduced because the sales/values recorded in foreign trade statistics are higher than the prices applied by domestic partners in domestic markets. The sales/values of imports recorded in foreign trade statistics are lower than the prices of imports in domestic markets, so the prices of special traders must be increased. The methodology of this correction was discussed by the NBH, and they made the same correction in the BoP. 28

29 Item Effect of changes in external trade, 2006 Published in September 2007 Published in September 2008 at current prices, million HUF Difference in % of previous data Goods exports imports balance Services without tourism exports imports balance Tourism exports imports balance External trade, total Exports Imports Balance Summary overall effect The effects of methodological changes and data revisions led to a decrease of HUF 57.7 billion (- 0.3%) in the GDP for 2005, and an increase of HUF billion (+0.1%) in the GDP for 2006, compared to the previous GNI Questionnaire. 29